US Federal Reserve rate hike supports US dollar to Hungarian forint exchange rate at Ft317.2421 support

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US Dollar vs Forint drops 0.43% today

Highlights

The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4% on September 16, 2026.
Dollar-denominated assets become more attractive relative to the Hungarian Forint during periods of confirmed US rate increases.
USD/HUF is projected to remain range-bound between Ft315.7611 and Ft318.9345, with a 60% probability of a bullish continuation based on strong momentum signals.

Fed rate hike boosts US dollar appeal amid shifting capital flows

The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026, taking the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%, according to Iaspoint. This confirmed increase in US rates tends to make dollar-denominated assets more attractive, which can drive capital flows in favor of the US Dollar relative to the Hungarian Forint. Such central bank actions often serve as a key backdrop for shifts in currency pairs, and ongoing monetary policy adjustments remain a closely watched factor for forex participants.

Bullish momentum persists despite intraday softness and neutral signals

USD/HUF is currently trading below the MA-20 level, with immediate support seen at the Ichimoku Kijun, which stands at Ft317.2421. The pair retains positioning above the MA-50 and MA-200, indicating underlying medium- and long-term support. Technical indicators show that MACD and ADX suggest the presence of strong bullish momentum, while RSI at 55.91 registers mild buying interest. Meanwhile, Stochastic RSI and CCI remain neutral, the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, and Bull/Bear Power indicates intraday buyer predominance. Despite this, a small gap down at the open and session prices near the daily low reflect intraday softness amid low volatility.

Bullish bias holds as volatility bands define breakout risks

Over the next two to three trading days, USD/HUF is expected to move within a typical volatility band between Ft315.7611 and Ft318.9345. The probability of an upward move is calculated at 60%, giving bullish continuation a modest edge, while a downside scenario, though less likely, would activate if the pair breaks below support. The baseline expectation is for price action to remain contained between these bounds, with a breakout in either direction serving as an early signal for the next directional move.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes that USD/HUF shows intraday weakness but remains propped up by medium- and long-term support levels. He sees the recent Fed rate hike as a supportive factor for the US Dollar, but technical signals and price action point to limited near-term upside. Kharitonov believes that unless support at Ft317.2421 is clearly breached, the currency pair is likely to stay within its projected range. "Base case remains rangebound between Ft315.7611 and Ft318.9345 — any move beyond these levels will set the next direction, but caution is warranted until then."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/HUF maintained a broadly bullish structure, supported by persistent buying momentum even amid signs of overextension. The current analysis highlights that while short-term selling pressure has emerged, the backdrop of recent Fed tightening means traders should monitor for renewed upside if the pair holds above its medium-term averages and key support near Ft317.24.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.