USD/ILS holds near ₪3.0173 support as Federal Reserve hawkish stance limits moves

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US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel down 0.52%

Highlights

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage point and communicated a hawkish stance to curb inflation.
This decision increases US Dollar borrowing costs and is prompting currency position adjustments between the US Dollar and Israeli Shekel.
USD/ILS trades below key short- and medium-term averages, with strong selling pressure and a projected 2 to 3 day range of ₪3.0173 to ₪3.0477.

Fed rate hike and hawkish stance drive currency rebalancing

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage point and communicated a hawkish policy stance, according to Sedaily. This move increases the cost of borrowing in US Dollars and signals a firm commitment to curbing inflation, which can influence demand dynamics between the US Dollar and Israeli Shekel. Following this policy shift by the Fed, market participants are rebalancing currency positions in response to updated interest rate expectations.

Mixed momentum as USD/ILS tests support below near-term averages

On the H1 chart, USD/ILS is trading below the MA-20 at ₪3.0398 and the MA-50 at ₪3.0375, while remaining above the MA-200 at ₪3.0198. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at ₪3.0382, acting as immediate resistance. Momentum signals are mixed: RSI at 46.93 points to a sell bias, Bull/Bear Power highlights seller dominance intraday, while MACD and ADX are neutral. Stoch RSI shows oversold conditions and CCI is neutral, with AO confirming strong selling pressure and price action hovering near the session low.

Sideways consolidation favored amid breakout and breakdown risks

In the near term, the expected trading range for USD/ILS over the next 2 to 3 days is ₪3.0173 to ₪3.0477. There is a 29% probability of an upward move and a 71% chance of a downward move. The baseline expectation is for the pair to consolidate sideways within this volatility band, with upside potential triggered by a breakout above the Kijun resistance, while additional downside opens if the price slips below MA-200 support.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees USD/ILS holding under pressure as both technical and macro factors weigh. He notes that recent Fed tightening has yet to catalyze a bullish reversal, with price action staying below key moving averages and seller momentum in control. Kharitonov argues that the absence of breakouts above the Kijun resistance keeps downside risks elevated. "Until ₪3.0382 is reclaimed, I remain cautious and see no reason to position for upside," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that while USD/ILS exhibited sustained upward momentum, conflicting technical signals and a bearish longer-term trend introduced heightened risks of short-term reversal. With the current move below key moving averages and the recalibration of rate expectations following the Fed's decision, market participants should monitor for a potential downside extension if support at the MA-200 fails in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.