Riksbank holds policy rate at 1.75%: Can USD/SEK hold kr9.82 support?

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US Dollar vs Swedish Krona down 0.5%

Highlights

The Riksbank kept its policy rate at 1.75%, creating a neutral short-term environment for the Swedish Krona.
Forward guidance allows for potential rate increases later this year, but no immediate policy changes were enacted.
USD/SEK trades below key short-term averages with mixed momentum signals, projected in a kr9.82 to kr9.9242 range for the next sessions.

Riksbank’s neutral stance tempers immediate SEK volatility

The Riksbank held its policy rate steady at 1.75%, a decision regarded as widely anticipated and described as neutral for the Swedish Krona, according to Fxstreet. By opting not to adjust monetary policy at this meeting, the central bank has removed any immediate tightening or loosening pressure on SEK, prompting a stable reaction in currency markets. Though forward guidance leaves room for a possible rate increase later in the year, the current stance contributes to a neutral short-term backdrop for US Dollar vs Swedish Krona.

Mixed momentum and oscillator divergence amid technical boundary tests

Technically, USD/SEK trades below the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, while maintaining position above the MA-200 on the daily chart. Immediate resistance is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level of kr9.8947, with support seen at kr9.82. Momentum indicators present a mixed picture: MACD and ADX display a strong bullish tilt, RSI is just above neutral at 52, and Bull/Bear Power registers intraday buyer activity. However, Stochastic RSI is in oversold territory and CCI remains neutral, highlighting a divergence between oscillator signals and current price action.

Range-bound trading likely as breakout risks remain contained

Over the next two to three sessions, USD/SEK is expected to trade within the kr9.82 to kr9.9242 range, reflecting typical volatility around current levels. The baseline scenario favors continued consolidation inside this corridor. An upside scenario would be triggered by a break above kr9.8947, with a 68% probability assigned to an upward move. Alternatively, a drop below kr9.82 could signal renewed downside pressure, but this scenario is less likely at present.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes that USD/SEK is locked in consolidation after the Riksbank's expected decision to keep rates unchanged. He sees technicals as offering mixed signals, with prices pressed between support at kr9.82 and resistance at kr9.8947. Kharitonov views the setup as neutral, with little directional conviction as momentum diverges and policy uncertainty lingers. "Base case remains tight-range trading; until we see a breakout above kr9.8947 or below kr9.82, directional trades carry more risk than reward."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/SEK maintained a strong bullish technical posture supported by upward momentum. With the pair now consolidating below key short- and medium-term averages and oscillators diverging, traders should monitor for a decisive move above kr9.8947 or below kr9.82 to confirm the next directional shift.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.