AUD/USD technical analysis: Range-bound trading continues below $0.6986 resistance

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Australian dollar drops 0.48% today

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of Australia announced potential further interest rate increases this year, raising the outlook for tighter monetary policy.
The policy update has increased market attention on Australian dollar yields, though the currency remains under selling pressure.
AUD/USD trades below key moving averages with sell signals dominating, and is expected to remain in a $0.6904 to $0.6974 range over the next 2 to 3 days.

RBA rate hike signals support amid ongoing currency pressure

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia indicated that it may increase interest rates further this year, according to RTTNews. This announcement elevates expectations for tighter monetary policy and typically increases investor attention on Australian dollar yields. The policy signal provides a supportive backdrop for the currency, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Momentum weakens as bearish signals hold below resistance

On the hourly chart, AUD/USD is trading below the MA-20 at $0.6964, MA-50 at $0.6977, and remains under the long-term MA-200 at $0.706. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $0.6986 is acting as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators remain negative: both MACD and ADX point to bearish conditions, while RSI is at 36.43, signaling a sell. Stoch RSI and CCI are both in oversold territory, reflecting persistent downside momentum. Bull/Bear Power confirms seller dominance on an intraday basis, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not counteract the prevailing direction.

Downside favored as breakout thresholds define outlook

For the coming 2–3 trading days, AUD/USD is expected to fluctuate within the $0.6904 to $0.6974 range according to typical volatility. The likelihood of an upward reversal remains low, with the probability of a downside move above 80%. Should the pair break above $0.6986, a more constructive tone could develop, while a drop below $0.6904 would likely accelerate further losses.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy guidance as a potential positive, but sees ongoing technical weakness keeping AUD/USD on the defensive. He notes that downside momentum remains clear, with indicators showing no sign of bullish reversal. Kharitonov maintains a cautious stance as long as the pair trades below key resistance. "Until AUD/USD reclaims $0.6986, sellers remain firmly in control and downside risks persist."

In a recent review, it was noted that smaller listed companies in Malaysia are increasingly turning to equity markets and internal capital adjustments to fund core business activities. While the AUD/USD pair currently faces broad downside momentum, traders should monitor for a confirmed move below $0.6904, which could intensify selling pressure in the days ahead.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.