Banking sector profit surge supports US dollar to Uzbekistan Som exchange rate overbought conditions

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US Dollar vs Uzbekistan Som up 0.68%

Highlights

Uzbekistan's commercial banks recorded a 13.8 trillion soum net profit as of September 1, 2026, driven by robust sector performance.
Aggregate sector capital grew 17.6% to 151.5 trillion soums, reflecting strengthened capitalization in the financial system.
USD/UZS has gained 0.68% to UZS12,067 with strong intraday buyer momentum and is projected to trade between UZS12,006 and UZS12,127 over the next two to three days.

Local currency confidence rises as bank profits and capital strengthen

Uzbekistan’s commercial banks have reported a significant year-on-year increase in net profit, reaching 13.8 trillion soums as of September 1, 2026, according to Uzdaily. Aggregate sector capital also rose 17.6% to 151.5 trillion soums, indicating robust capitalization in the financial system. Strong banking sector performance tends to reinforce confidence in the local currency, shaping flows between the US dollar and Uzbek som even as today’s price action remains moderate.

Overbought signals as USD/UZS tests resistance above technical levels

USD/UZS is trading above the MA-20 at UZS12,003 and MA-50 at UZS11,972 on the hourly chart, as well as the MA-200 at UZS11,999 on the daily chart. Immediate support is provided by the Ichimoku Kijun at UZS12,011, while intraday resistance is found near the session’s recent high. Momentum indicators show MACD and ADX both on Buy signals, with RSI at 63.35 leaning bullish but nearing the overbought threshold. Stochastic RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power all confirm overbought conditions during intraday trading, and the Awesome Oscillator remains positive in support of short-term gains.

Range-bound outlook holds as risk tilts toward continued short-term gains

In the near term, USD/UZS is likely to trade within a band of UZS12,006 to UZS12,127 over the next few trading sessions. There is a 74% probability of continued upside, with a 26% chance of a pullback, making declines less likely in the current market. The baseline expectation is for range-bound movement, while a decisive break above resistance could open the way for further gains. Conversely, a sustained breach below the Ichimoku Kijun support would add downside risk to the outlook.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that USD/UZS remains technically strong above key moving averages while recent banking sector data points to improved fundamentals for the Uzbek som. He sees sentiment balanced given only a modest daily move and some overbought signals in the short term. Kharitonov stays cautious, emphasizing that stability in local banks may support the som, but technical indicators warn of potential retracement if support fails. "The base case is for range-bound action, but without a decisive break above resistance, I prefer to wait for clearer momentum before taking a position."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/UZS maintained a broadly bullish momentum supported by technical indicators. The current analysis strengthens this view, with sustained gains and robust support levels suggesting the prevailing scenario remains tilted toward further upside, as traders watch for a breakout above intraday resistance.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.