Euro to Indian rupee rate under RBI scrutiny and IMF pressure: EUR/INR remains under pressure

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Euro vs Indian Rupee drops 0.48% today

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of India now requires banks to collect detailed information on overseas transactions exceeding $1 billion to monitor and potentially restrict capital outflows.
The International Monetary Fund recommends India allow greater flexibility in the rupee's exchange rate instead of relying on central bank interventions.
EUR/INR remains under persistent downside pressure, trading below key moving averages, with a projected range of ₹105.4582 to ₹106.518 and technical signals indicating a high probability of continued declines.

Outflows curbed as RBI tightens oversight and IMF urges flexibility

The Reserve Bank of India has implemented tighter scrutiny on large overseas direct investments by Indian companies, mandating that major banks collect detailed information on any transaction exceeding $1 billion, according to Bloomberg. This regulatory action is designed to monitor and potentially restrict capital outflows, contributing to the ongoing management of rupee liquidity and reducing downward pressure on the currency. Separately, the International Monetary Fund has advised India to permit greater flexibility in the rupee’s exchange rate response to global market shocks, emphasizing that immediate benefits from central bank intervention are limited, as reported by Bloomberg.

Momentum signals intensify as price remains under major resistance

On the technical front, EUR/INR is trading below both the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, and remains well under the MA-200 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun is set at ₹106.3329 and currently serves as immediate resistance. Momentum remains negative, supported by clear sell signals from MACD and ADX, while intraday indicators like RSI, CCI, and Stochastic RSI all confirm oversold or strong selling conditions. Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator also reinforce persistent downside momentum, with the price closing near today’s session low during a period of low volatility.

Bearish risk persists as price consolidation favors downside

Over the next two to three sessions, EUR/INR is expected to trade within a range from ₹105.4582 to ₹106.518, with downside scenarios remaining considerably more likely than an upward reversal. The baseline scenario envisages continued consolidation within this corridor, while a successful break above immediate resistance may trigger a limited bullish reaction. Conversely, a drop below projected support would reinforce the prevailing bearish momentum, extending losses beyond the current volatility band.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees mounting regulatory pressure and sustained technical weakness for EUR/INR. He notes that tighter RBI oversight on large overseas deals and IMF calls for a freer rupee both point to persistent currency headwinds. Major indicators signal downside momentum, while resistance remains firm. "Until price clears ₹106.3329 with conviction, the risk of further decline outweighs any bullish scenario for now."

Previously it was reported that Euro vs Indian Rupee maintained a bullish tone, with buyers in control despite caution signs of overbought technicals. The current analysis marks a shift to sustained downside momentum and highlights that traders should watch for a potential extension of losses if support below ₹105.4582 fails to hold.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.