USD/UZS holds steady as range-bound trading persists near the 200-day moving average

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US Dollar vs Som rises 0.61% today

Highlights

USD/UZS shows short- and medium-term bullish momentum but faces longer-term resistance below its 200-day moving average.
Price action for the next 2 to 3 trading days is expected to remain rangebound between UZS11,881 and UZS12,035.
Technical indicators give mixed signals with buyer dominance intraday, but a 62% probability points to a downside move if support fails.

Momentum divergence as mixed indicators clash with resistance

Technical levels show that USD/UZS is trading above its MA-20 at UZS11,910 and MA-50 at UZS11,896 on the working timeframe, while remaining below the MA-200 at UZS11,990 on the daily chart. Immediate support is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level of UZS11,907. Indicator readings are mixed: MACD signals strong buy momentum and the Awesome Oscillator maintains an upward tone, whereas ADX is neutral, RSI at 52.59 and CCI suggest mild buying interest, Bull/Bear Power points to intraday buyer dominance, but Stoch RSI is oversold. There is clear divergence between the overbought signal in Bull/Bear Power and the oversold Stoch RSI, indicating a cautious outlook.

Sideways pattern likely as downside risk outweighs upside

Over the next 2–3 trading days, USD/UZS is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band between UZS11,881 and UZS12,035. The probability of a move higher is estimated at 38%, while a decline is more likely at 62%. The baseline scenario is for a sideways pattern within this range, but a breakout above resistance could attract more buyers, while a drop below support may accelerate downside momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees USD/UZS holding steady above short- and medium-term averages but stalled below longer-term resistance. He notes that momentum readings are mixed, with buyers dominant intraday yet caution signaled by divergence in key indicators. Karapetjanc’s constructive macro view weighs the higher probability of a sideways or slightly weaker bias in the coming days. "If the pair can push above UZS11,990, momentum could shift, but for now, a patient approach within the UZS11,881–UZS12,035 band is favored."

Earlier, analysts noted that bearish momentum and downside risks were dominating the outlook for USD/UZS. The latest price action and mixed technical signals suggest a more cautious, range-bound scenario, with traders advised to monitor for a decisive break above UZS12,035 resistance or below UZS11,881 support to signal the next directional move.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.