USD/HUF trades flat as oversold Stoch RSI points to potential selling exhaustion

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US Dollar vs Forint drops 0.73% today

Highlights

Hungary plans to allocate about Ft4,000 billion in 2025 for economic development from budget, EU funds, and loans.
The combined internal and external financing capacity may strengthen domestic investment and attract additional capital to Hungary.
USD/HUF remains under short-term selling pressure and is expected to trade between Ft322.0371 and Ft325.2737 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Forint sentiment improves as state and EU funding boost prospects

Hungary is set to receive a combined framework of approximately Ft4,000 billion for economic development next year, through budgetary allocations, European Union support, and loan financing from the Hungarian Development Bank and Eximbank, according to Budapesttimes, citing the Minister of Economy and Energy. This significant commitment bolsters the government's ability to stimulate domestic investment, strengthen economic resilience, and potentially attract further capital inflows. The prospect of increased external support and internal funding may improve market sentiment towards the forint, providing a more constructive backdrop for currency dynamics over the medium term.

Downside signals intensify as pair tests key technical boundaries

Technical signals on USD/HUF show the price trading below the MA-20 and MA-50 on the H1 timeframe, while remaining above the MA-200 on the daily chart. Immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at Ft325.3436. Indicators reveal persistent downside momentum, with negative readings from MACD and ADX, and a neutral outlook from both RSI and Stoch RSI. CCI is oversold, suggesting selling exhaustion could be nearing, while Bull/Bear Power's negative reading and Awesome Oscillator confirm ongoing seller dominance in the intraday session.

Downside risks elevated as volatility band narrows for USD/HUF

Over the next 2 to 3 trading days, USD/HUF is likely to trade within a volatility band of Ft322.0371 to Ft325.2737. The probability of further gains is currently limited at 22%, while a downside break holds a higher likelihood of 78%. If the pair rises above Ft325.3436, additional bullish momentum can be anticipated. Conversely, a decline below Ft322.0371 would open the door to renewed selling and retest of lower supports.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/HUF under pressure as technicals show sellers in control and momentum remains negative. He notes that Hungary’s substantial Ft4,000 billion investment framework can increase support for the forint, but current price action is still subdued. Resistance at Ft325.3436 caps upside, while the bias favors downside unless proven otherwise. "Until bulls reclaim Ft325.3436, I stay cautious and see limited scope for a sustained rebound in USD/HUF."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/HUF was shifting from a short-term downside bias to underlying medium- and long-term bullish momentum. The latest developments bring renewed attention to downside risk, with the current downside momentum and fresh macroeconomic funding commitments warranting close monitoring of Ft322.0371 as a critical support level in the days ahead.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.