Australian Dollar vs US Dollar ticks up after Reserve Bank of Australia delivers 25 basis point hike

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Aud/usd rises 0.68% today after rba move

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points, putting immediate pressure on the Australian Dollar.
Market focus is on upcoming US employment data, with expectations that these releases will affect rate outlooks and currency moves.
AUD/USD trades in a narrow range with short-term bullish momentum but faces prevailing medium- and long-term selling, with a high probability of a move toward $0.6964 to $0.7057 in the next five days.

Aussie dollar recovers as traders eye US jobs data and policy shifts

The Reserve Bank of Australia implemented a 25 basis point interest rate hike, which initially drove the Australian Dollar vs US Dollar to a two-week low before prompting a modest recovery. Market attention is now focused on upcoming US employment figures, including JOLTS Job Openings and Nonfarm Payrolls, as these are expected to influence future rate expectations. Broader shifts in global monetary policy and risk sentiment also remain influential for the currency pair.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees AUD/USD constrained by persistent technical barriers after the RBA’s expected rate hike. He observes that short-term upside is fragile, with resistance at the 50-day and 200-day moving averages reinforcing selling bias. Macroeconomic events from the US remain a critical risk for further downside. Mixed signals from momentum indicators only underscore the lack of decisive buying strength. "Daily action remains vulnerable, and I see any true recovery as unlikely unless $0.7037 is reclaimed with conviction."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights that the RBA’s proactive stance and stable interest rate regime support a constructive medium-term outlook for AUD/USD. He notes that strong policy signals and an upcoming US data calendar offer fresh opportunities for bullish participation if resistance is breached. Karapetjanc points out that, while current range-bound activity persists, the bullish structure remains intact above $0.7002. "If momentum picks up above $0.7037, I expect further growth, with the market offering setups for patient traders."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, warns that the rebound in AUD/USD lacks conviction despite the RBA’s move. He stresses that global risk sentiment and looming US labor data are likely to weigh on the pair. With sellers dominating intraday action, room for short-term recovery remains narrow. "Traders should prepare for heightened volatility and be ready for a potential slide below $0.701 if negative macro trends intensify."

Short-term bullish signals tempered by neutral momentum and resistance caps

AUD/USD is trading above its 20-day moving average at $0.7002, which indicates short-term bullish momentum. However, the pair remains below the 50-day ($0.7037) and 200-day ($0.7056) moving averages, highlighting the persistence of medium- and longer-term selling pressure. The 50-day MA at $0.7037 serves as the closest resistance, while immediate support sits at the session high of $0.701, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.6982 also acting as a support level. Momentum signals are mixed, as MACD and Average Directional Index (ADX) both reflect neutral momentum; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) are also neutral, while only the Stochastic RSI is in its oversold zone. This suggests potential for a short-term rebound, while sellers are confirmed as dominant in intraday action by a negative Bull/Bear Power (BBP) reading.

In a recent review, analysts highlighted that the Australian Dollar was showing near-term upward momentum despite conflicting signals and overbought risks. The current analysis adds that, with medium- and long-term selling pressure persisting, focus should remain on whether AUD/USD can sustain support above $0.701 or risks a further drop toward $0.6964.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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