Will EUR/THB hold above ฿37.5279 support amid muted ECB policy shift?

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Euro vs Thai Baht drops 0.53% today

Highlights

The ECB retains its current monetary policy outlook after the Iran shock, citing no observed second-round effects.
No new policy signals from the ECB have left the Euro to Thai Baht exchange rate trajectory unchanged.
EUR/THB remains under sustained selling pressure, with price expected between ฿37.5279 to ฿37.9051 and bearish momentum dominating.

ECB maintains policy stance as geopolitical uncertainty persists

On Tuesday, Olaf Sleijpen, a member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council, commented that the recent shock from Iran has proved more persistent than initially expected, according to FXStreet. While this heightened uncertainty could have warranted a change in policy tone, Sleijpen stated that the ECB has yet to see any second-round effects, suggesting no imminent adjustment to its monetary policy outlook. The absence of new policy signals from the ECB leaves the Euro's trajectory largely unchanged against the Thai Baht in the current environment.

Bearish momentum persists as oscillators point to oversold conditions

On the H1 chart, EUR/THB trades below both the MA-20 and MA-50. On the daily timeframe, it remains under the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun level at ฿37.8606 acts as immediate resistance. Momentum signals show MACD is neutral, ADX registers a Sell, and RSI is neutral. Both Stoch RSI and CCI are in oversold territories, hinting at possible short-term rebound pressure. Bull/Bear Power is negative and the Awesome Oscillator confirms a sell bias.

Downside risk favored as volatility range narrows

In the next 2–3 days, EUR/THB is most likely to trade between ฿37.5279 and ฿37.9051, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move is limited to 25%, while a downward scenario is favored at 75%. If bullish momentum appears, a close above ฿37.8606 would open space for upside. A move below support at ฿37.5279 would indicate further downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees no sign of fresh support for EUR/THB after recent ECB comments. The pair remains stuck below key moving averages, with most momentum signals negative or neutral. He believes the risk stays to the downside unless resistance at ฿37.8606 is reclaimed. "Base case remains bearish — unless the euro breaks above immediate resistance, downside threats dominate in the short term."

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/THB faced persistent downside pressure amid weak technical signals and a lack of bullish catalysts. The current analysis reinforces this bias, with a fresh 75% probability favoring downside risk over the next several sessions, making a move below ฿37.5279 the key event to monitor.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.