Australian Dollar vs Thai Baht stays under pressure as sustained selling momentum and downside bias persist

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Aud/thb slides 0.73% today

Highlights

AUD/THB trades below key moving averages, with downside bias in short-, medium-, and long-term trends.
Momentum indicators are mostly neutral or oversold, suggesting possible selling exhaustion but no confirmed reversal.
The 5-day range is projected between ฿22.789 and ฿23.348, with a 71% probability of further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees AUD/THB under heavy technical pressure with all key moving averages signaling persistent weakness. He notes that momentum oscillators highlight selling exhaustion, but a rebound is not yet validated. News catalysts are absent, leaving bears in control and increasing downside risks. Kharitonov is particularly cautious about the pair's inability to recover toward the MA-20 or the near-term ceiling at ฿23.216. "Until clear reversal signals emerge and newsflow improves, I see limited upside and heightened risk of further declines for AUD/THB," he states.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, maintains a constructive view on AUD/THB despite recent softness. He emphasizes that the longer-term bullish structure remains viable with MA-50 still above MA-200, pointing to potential for renewed buying interest. The analyst sees market volatility as an opportunity for active traders, especially if the pair reclaims the ceiling at ฿23.216. Karapetjanc believes further growth is achievable should buyers capitalize on signs of oversold momentum. "I expect that a break above recent resistance will open up multiple setups for upside in the coming days," he asserts.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, identifies a risk-off environment for AUD/THB. He highlights persistent downside as sellers dominate, supported by mixed momentum and bearish technicals. Dele notes the lack of news drivers, reinforcing weak sentiment and increasing vulnerability. "Until support at ฿23.04 decisively breaks or news alters the picture, traders should remain defensive," he warns.

Downside bias sustained as oversold signals clash with faint support

AUD/THB remains pressured, trading below all key moving averages: MA-20 at ฿23.571, MA-50 at ฿23.556, and MA-200 at ฿23.294. This setup maintains a downside bias across short-, medium-, and long-term trends, although the slightly bullish alignment of the MA-50 versus MA-200 offers faint long-term support. The near-term resistance stands at the ceiling of ฿23.216, with immediate support at ฿23.04. Momentum signals are mixed: RSI and MACD are neutral, while the ADX points to ongoing selling pressure. Both the Stochastic RSI and CCI are in the oversold zone, reflecting possible selling exhaustion and a potential rebound risk, though a reversal is not confirmed. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) suggests buyers hold a slight intraday advantage, but the pair ended the day 0.73% lower, near session lows, amid 0.89% intraday volatility, indicating continued downward pressure after the open.

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/THB faced persistent downside momentum amid broad technical weakness and concerns over central bank credibility. The current analysis reinforces this bearish outlook, with a rangebound scenario prevailing for now and a breakdown below ฿23.04 highlighted as the key risk for further declines.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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