US dollar to Uzbekistan Som rate stable after central bank decision: USD/UZS remains range-bound

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US Dollar vs Uzbekistan Som up 0.54% today

Highlights

Uzbekistan's central bank kept its policy rate at 14% to sustain tight monetary conditions amid inflation concerns and strong domestic demand.
The soum gained 7% against the US dollar in 2025 and an additional 1.9% in the first nine months of 2026, as structural factors strengthened the currency.
USD/UZS shows bullish momentum with intraday buyer advantage, and the expected trading range in the next 2 to 3 days is UZS11,954 to UZS12,074.

Policy rate stability underpins soum strength amid structural gains

Uzbekistan's central bank maintained its policy rate at 14% on November 4, 2026, a decision that, according to Intellinews, sustains tight monetary conditions and signals official concern over inflation risks and robust domestic demand. This continued firmness in policy rates typically preserves support for the local currency by discouraging capital outflows and moderating USD/UZS demand. Additionally, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan noted that recent developments in the currency market have reduced the US dollar's influence on local inflation expectations, while Uzdaily reported that the soum strengthened by nearly 7% against the dollar in 2025 and by a further 1.9% through the first nine months of 2026, highlighting underlying structural improvements that provide a stable backdrop for USD/UZS trade.

Bullish momentum builds as technical readings stay constructive

On the H1 chart, USD/UZS is trading above both the MA-20 and MA-50, while on the daily chart it remains above the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at UZS11,960, providing immediate support. Bull/Bear Power is positive at 29.83, favoring buyers in intraday trade. Momentum is clearly positive with MACD and ADX both signaling a buy, while the RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI each show neutral readings, and the Awesome Oscillator is also neutral.

Upside probability increases as consolidation tightens in set range

Over the next two to three trading days, USD/UZS is expected to move within the UZS11,954 to UZS12,074 range, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. Market probability suggests a 73% chance of further gains, with consolidation likely within this corridor. An upward breakout above UZS12,074 could signal additional upside potential, while a move below UZS11,954 would open the door to a deeper pullback.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the USD/UZS pair holding steady as the central bank’s rate decision supports the soum and keeps volatility contained. He notes that while fundamentals improve and technicals stay supportive above key averages, upside momentum is limited by constrained daily moves and a flat sentiment. Cautious traders should watch the UZS12,074 resistance and be alert for any bearish reversal below UZS11,954. "Until USD/UZS breaks out of this range, I remain defensive and avoid chasing short-term moves."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/UZS was experiencing technical indecision amid support at short-term moving averages and mixed momentum signals. The latest developments—particularly the central bank's reinforcement of tight monetary conditions and positive momentum readings—present an environment where close attention to a potential breakout above UZS12,074 is warranted in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.