Why is EUR/USD down 0.6% today?

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Euro vs dollar slides 0.67% today

Highlights

The euro drew support from lower US Treasury yields, falling oil prices, and improved risk appetite as Democrats won the US midterm elections.
Easing growth divergence, eurozone inflation at 4%, and increased European Central Bank rate hike expectations created additional tailwinds for the euro.
EUR/USD trades below key averages under ongoing downside pressure, with a near-term range of $1.109 to $1.1208 and 53% probability of a downward move.

Speculator unwinding meets broader pressure as sentiment shifts post-election

The euro recently drew support from a decline in US Treasury yields and oil prices, as well as improved market risk appetite following the Democrats' win in the US midterm elections. Easing growth divergence between the eurozone and the US, rising eurozone inflation at 4%, and increased expectations of a European Central Bank rate hike were reported. A cooling US economy gave the Federal Reserve reason to pause on further rate hikes, and traders tracked upcoming US employment figures. In the short term, the shift out of long US dollar positions by speculators was also mentioned, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views the EUR/USD downward move as technically validated across all timeframes. He notes that bearish pressure persists despite supporting euro news, as the pair stays firmly under its major moving averages. Risk appetite and reduced US yield have offered only temporary support, with eurozone fundamentals insufficient to change the dominant trend. Kharitonov is critical of short-lived bullish attempts given the alignment of technical indicators and ongoing macro uncertainty. "Until strong buying signals emerge above $1.1155, I remain cautious, expecting further weakness or sideways action as sellers dominate the market."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights the potential for a constructive euro recovery. He sees support from falling US yields, a cooling US economy, and renewed ECB rate hike bets as underpinning medium-term opportunity. Karapetjanc believes that fading growth divergence and positive intraday buyer activity can open room for further upside if resistance is breached. He maintains confidence that the broader trend may shift if key triggers materialize. "With volatility still moderate and macro drivers in flux, the bullish structure remains intact as long as EUR/USD holds above $1.1132."

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes mixed technical signals and a neutral sentiment backdrop. He sees the current range as a battleground, with oscillators suggesting both downside risk and potential rebound setups. Turakhiya points out short-term traders can watch for momentum divergences near support and resistance. He cautions about choppy moves given the overbought Stochastic RSI. "For now, I would trade the $1.1132–$1.1155 zone reactively — seeking quick setups on volatility spikes rather than expecting a lasting breakout."

Bearish momentum and mixed oscillators set boundaries amid weak trend

EUR/USD remains below its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages ($1.1206, $1.1306, and $1.1509 respectively), signaling ongoing downside pressure in short-, medium-, and long-term trends. The pair is trading just above the support level at $1.1132, while resistance stands at $1.1155 and the Ichimoku Kijun ($1.1191) forms additional overhead resistance. The broader trend is confirmed bearish by the MA-50 vs MA-200 alignment. Momentum is mixed: the MACD points to strong downside momentum, but the ADX shows trend strength and a buy signal. The RSI and CCI are neutral, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while the Stochastic RSI is overbought, flagging a risk of a corrective move lower. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is positive, highlighting intraday buyer activity as the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral. Volatility amplitude is moderate at 0.93%, and price action has stayed weak after the open, with oscillators showing notable divergence.

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent selling pressure and a bearish technical setup were dominant for EUR/USD despite intermittent support for the euro. The current analysis reinforces this outlook, highlighting that while recent developments have provided momentary support, downside risk remains with $1.1132 as a key level to watch for further weakness.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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