US dollar to Polish Złoty prediction: Buyer support underpins consolidation near resistance

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US Dollar vs Zloty up 0.56% today

Highlights

The 10-year US Treasury auction saw weak demand as $42 billion in bonds cleared at 5.02%, above the secondary market rate.
Recent strong US inflation data and potential for aggressive Federal Reserve rate increases have contributed to a higher yield environment and broad demand for the US Dollar versus the Polish Zloty.
USD/PLN maintains a strong bullish technical setup across all timeframes, targeting a trading range of zł3.9405 to zł3.9801, with overbought intraday momentum suggesting a risk of short-term pullback.

Dollar demand rises as treasury yields climb on inflation risk

According to Scmp, the latest auction of the 10-year US Treasury saw weak investor demand, with $42 billion in bonds sold at a yield of 5.02%, which was above the secondary market rate. This outcome followed a stronger-than-expected US inflation reading and a Federal Reserve official highlighting the possibility of an aggressive rate increase. The higher yield environment underscores both heightened inflation expectations and the likelihood of tighter US monetary policy, contributing to broad demand for the US Dollar versus the Polish Zloty.

Overbought signals emerge as bullish momentum meets key support

On the h1 chart, USD/PLN is trading above its MA-20 at zł3.9419, MA-50 at zł3.925, and long-term MA-200 at zł3.7449. The Ichimoku Kijun level at zł3.9317 acts as immediate support. Momentum indicators, including MACD, ADX, and the Awesome Oscillator, point to persistent buy conditions, while Bull/Bear Power remains positive, signaling intraday buyer control. However, RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI are all in overbought territory, indicating an increased risk of a near-term correction despite prevailing upward momentum.

Consolidation favored as volatility bands limit breakout risk

In the short term, the anticipated trading range for USD/PLN lies between zł3.9405 and zł3.9801, reflecting typical volatility bands relative to current levels. The baseline scenario favors consolidation within this range. A decisive break above resistance could trigger further gains, while a drop below immediate support at the Ichimoku Kijun level may activate short-term downside pressure.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees broad US Dollar demand supporting a steady advance in USD/PLN. He believes recent weak demand in the US Treasury auction, coupled with higher inflation concerns, point to persistent global appetite for USD assets. With technical signals confirming buyer control, the base case is consolidation near the upper part of the range. Karapetjanc notes the risk of a near-term correction but expects bullish momentum to persist unless immediate supports are lost. "As long as USD/PLN holds above key supports, I expect upward momentum to continue, with dips likely to attract buyers."

Previously it was reported that USD/PLN maintained a bullish structure supported by technical buying and sustained strength above key moving averages. With momentum indicators now signaling overbought conditions, traders should monitor for potential short-term corrections if the pair fails to decisively break above the upper boundary of the current consolidation range.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.