Euro to Bangladeshi Taka rate holds steady amid higher USD liquidity from central bank auction

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Euro vs taka drops 0.51% today

Highlights

Bangladesh Bank injected $205 million into commercial banks to provide USD liquidity and support the taka.
The remittance dollar rate dropped below Tk125, indicating increased USD supply in both formal and informal markets.
EUR/BDT remains in a bearish trend with sellers dominant and a projected range of BDT136.498 to BDT137.87 in the next sessions.

Bangladesh Bank’s FX auction bolsters taka and curbs euro gains

Bangladesh Bank sold $205 million from its foreign exchange reserves to commercial banks via auction, according to Tbsnews. This injection of USD liquidity eased upward pressure on the Euro/BDT pair by increasing availability of foreign currency, thereby supporting the taka. Secondary market effects include the dollar rate from remittance houses falling below Tk125, also reported by Tbsnews, which signals improved USD supply across both formal and informal channels and further limits upward momentum for Euro vs Bangladeshi Taka.

Sustained bearish momentum as sellers hold below major resistance

On the technical side, EUR/BDT remains well below the MA-20 at BDT137.631, MA-50 at BDT138.32, and the longer-term MA-200 at BDT141.539 on the hourly chart. The Ichimoku Kijun currently stands at BDT137.74 as immediate resistance. Momentum readings remain weak: both MACD and ADX generate sell signals, while RSI and Stoch RSI are positioned in neutral zones. CCI is in the oversold zone, pointing to the risk of selling exhaustion but lacking a guarantee of reversal. Sellers dominate intraday momentum, highlighted by Bull/Bear Power at -0.138 and confirmation from the Awesome Oscillator.

Downside conviction prevails amid tight support and low breakout odds

In the short term, the forecasted trading range is set between BDT136.498 and BDT137.87, representing the typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move stands at 21%, while the likelihood of further downside is 79%. Consolidation within this corridor is the baseline scenario; a bullish breakout would require a move above resistance at BDT137.74, whereas sustained losses would follow a breach below BDT136.498.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees technical and fundamental pressure keeping EUR/BDT on a defensive footing. Currency support from Bangladesh Bank’s intervention and weak momentum readings suggest that sellers remain in control. Key indicators show no clear sign of reversal while resistance at BDT137.74 caps the upside. "Until EUR/BDT breaks above immediate resistance, my tactical stance stays bearish with risk skewed to further downside."

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/BDT was entrenched in a bearish technical structure, with downside risk prevailing amid central bank intervention. The latest liquidity injection by Bangladesh Bank and the resulting easing in informal dollar rates reinforce ongoing pressure on the pair, making a sustained move below BDT136.498 the key downside risk to monitor in the near term.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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