Pakistan current account deficit widens in September on higher imports

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Pakistan current account deficit widens

Highlights

Pakistan's current account deficit widens to $356 million in September 2026 from $73 million in August, reversing a $133 million surplus from September 2025.
September 2026 imports surge over 23% year on year to $7.38 billion, while exports increase 15% to $3.95 billion and remittances rise nearly 13% to $3.59 billion.
Topline Securities projects FY27E current account deficit between $2 billion–$3 billion (0.4%–0.6% of GDP) as REER climbs to 108.93, signaling rising external imbalances.

September trade and remittance trends

As reported by Business Recorder, citing the State Bank of Pakistan, the country’s current account deficit reaches $356 million in September 2026, after the central bank revises August 2026’s deficit down to $73 million from $98 million. The latest reading also compares with a surplus of $133 million in September 2025.

The wider deficit is driven by a significantly higher import bill and only a marginal increase in exports during the month. Total exports of goods and services amount to $3.95 billion in September 2026, up more than 15% from $3.42 billion a year earlier, while total imports rise more than 23% year on year to $7.38 billion from $5.99 billion.

Workers’ remittance inflows provide some support to the external account. Remittances clock in at $3.59 billion in September 2026, compared with $3.18 billion in the same month last year, an increase of nearly 13%.

FY27 external account outlook and currency competitiveness

During the first three months of FY27, Pakistan posts a cumulative current account deficit of $874 million, compared with a deficit of $755 million in the same period of the previous fiscal year. That represents an increase of 16%, indicating the external balance remains under pressure despite stronger inflows from overseas workers.

Topline Securities says it expects the current account deficit for FY27E to clock in at $2 billion to $3 billion, equivalent to 0.4% to 0.6% of GDP. The forecast suggests the full-year gap remains manageable, but still leaves Pakistan exposed to trade and financing risks if import growth continues to outpace export gains.

Pakistan’s Real Effective Exchange Rate rises 0.98% to 108.93 in September 2026 from 107.87 in August 2026. A REER reading above 100 means the country’s exports are uncompetitive while imports are cheaper, adding to pressure on the trade balance.

Our earlier article on the proposed Port Qasim export-oriented aluminium smelter explained AsiaPak Investments’ plan to build a project targeting more than $5 billion in annual exports at full development. It detailed the suggested back-to-back power purchase arrangement with CPPA-G and how approvals for the smelter were linked to a conditional settlement framework for the PQEPCL-CPPA-G late payment interest dispute.

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