Malaysia’s September trade data takes centre stage this week

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Malaysia September trade data

Highlights

Malaysia’s September external trade data will be released on 19 Oct, with Bloomberg estimating exports to rise 37.4% and the trade surplus to reach RM31.25 billion.
Bank Indonesia, the Bank of Korea and the Philippine central bank are expected to make rate decisions this week, with risks of rate hikes if geopolitical tensions persist.
Meta Platforms, Tesla and 74 S&P 500 companies will report quarterly earnings on 21 Oct, focusing on AI investment performance and automotive trends.

This article was translated from the original. Read the original version by our correspondent here.

Malaysia and Asia data calendar this week

The Edge Malaysia reported that Malaysia’s September external trade data is scheduled to be released on 19 Oct, with economists and markets closely watching whether the country’s export momentum can be sustained after strong growth in recent months.

Bloomberg estimates place export growth at 37.4% year-on-year, while imports are projected to rise 9% and the trade surplus is expected to reach RM31.25 billion. In August, exports surged 45.5% year-on-year, far exceeding the market consensus forecast of 38%, supported by robust growth in the electrical and electronics sector and refined petroleum product exports, which rose 65% and 21.3%, respectively.

RHB Research previously said it sees further upside to its 2026 export growth forecast of 21.7%, supported by 31.2% export growth from January to August. The firm said export momentum is expected to continue being driven by resilient manufacturing exports, particularly E&E products, as well as continued strength in commodity exports including natural gas, although the external outlook remains dependent on developments in the artificial intelligence investment cycle, geopolitical conditions and U.S. tariff policies.

On the same day, Malaysia will also release its September Consumer Price Index, with Bloomberg estimates indicating a 1.9% year-on-year increase. In a report dated 18 Sept, CGS International Securities said near-term inflation is expected to remain contained following government support measures, but medium-term inflation risks are rising amid higher energy prices for longer, and the firm maintained its full-year 2026 CPI growth forecast at 1.9%.

Regionally, China is scheduled to release third-quarter gross domestic product data on 19 Sept, with Bloomberg estimates placing growth at 4.4% year-on-year compared with 4.3% in the second quarter. The country is also expected to release September industrial production and retail sales data, projected to grow 5.4% and 0.5% year-on-year, respectively.

Three major Asian central banks are also scheduled to make monetary policy decisions this week. Bank Indonesia is expected to keep its policy rate at 5.75% on 21 Oct, while the Bank of Korea is expected to hold its rate at 3% on 22 Oct, according to a Bloomberg survey; UOB Global Economics and Markets Research said upside risks to the BoK tightening path remain if the Middle East conflict extends into 2027 and economic growth strengthens. On the same day, the Philippine central bank is expected to raise its overnight lending rate and overnight deposit rate by 25 basis points each to 5.25% and 4.75%, respectively.

Focus on corporate earnings and global indicators

Outside Asia, global equity market attention is also shifting to the corporate earnings season, with two Magnificent Seven companies, Meta Platforms and Tesla, scheduled to report quarterly earnings on 21 Oct. Meta will be the first AI hyperscaler to report this week, with investors expected to assess signs of returns on investment to determine whether future spending can be sustained.

For Tesla, attention is focused on its automotive business after the company missed revenue estimates in two of the last four quarters. Vehicle delivery trends present a mixed picture, with year-on-year declines despite sequential increases.

On Wall Street, 74 companies in the S&P 500 will also report third-quarter earnings this week, adding significance to the period for the market’s assessment of corporate profits and the direction of technology spending. In U.S. economic data, markets will scrutinise September new home sales on 20 Oct, which are projected to rise 2.3% month-on-month to 1.305 million units after falling 2.6% to 1.275 million units in August.

The U.S. is also scheduled to release initial jobless claims on 24 Oct, with UOB estimating the figure could reach as high as 240,000, close to 241,000 in the previous week. Among other G7 economies, the UK will release September CPI on 21 Oct, with growth projected at 3.3% year-on-year, while Canada is expected to record a 3.2% year-on-year increase in September CPI.

In our previous coverage of MARC Ratings’ warning after Budget 2027, we highlighted the need for Malaysia to strengthen its fiscal buffers as global shocks such as geopolitical events, pandemics and climate-related disruptions are becoming more frequent. The article also outlined how a prolonged period of high interest rates and bond yields, as well as substantial government spending commitments, could limit policy space, increasing the importance of reforms such as broadening the tax base and improving targeted subsidies.

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