Statistics Canada study finds no broad AI-driven hit to youth hiring

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AI not main factor in youth hiring

Highlights

Statistics Canada study finds no broad evidence of AI-driven declines in hiring or increases in job separations in Canada since November 2022.
Hiring rates for youth in low-AI-exposure jobs fell from 4% to 3.3%, and in high-AI-exposure jobs from 3.2% to 3% between late 2022 and August 2026.
Researchers cite broader economic factors—trade dynamics, tariffs, immigration shocks, and population growth—as larger contributors to weak youth employment than AI substitution.

Labour market data and study findings

As reported by MoneySense, citing Statistics Canada, a study published last week finds "no broad evidence" that the rise of AI has caused substantial declines in hiring or increases in job separation rates in Canada since November 2022, when ChatGPT launched publicly. The analysis says this pattern also holds for younger workers and for occupations seen as more vulnerable to AI substitution, including data-entry and coding-intensive roles.

The research examines labour force survey data for workers aged 15 to 64 from January 2006 to August 2026. It compares hiring and separation trends across occupations based on their potential exposure to AI and whether the technology is more likely to complement workers or substitute for specific tasks.

Tahsin Mehdi, a senior research economist at the agency and a co-author of the study, says AI is reshaping workflows and redefining jobs, but is not necessarily eliminating entire roles at this stage. He says hiring and job separation rates remain generally within historical ranges, or continue trends already in place before late 2022.

Among workers aged 15 to 29, the study says hiring in low-AI-exposure jobs falls from 4% in the six months before November 2022 to 3.3% in the six months before August 2026. Over the same period, youth hiring in jobs considered more open to AI substitution edges down from 3.2% to 3%.

The study also shows hiring rates in coding-intensive jobs decline from 2.5% to 1.9% between 2022 and 2026. Mehdi says that trend may reflect employers adjusting after strong pandemic-era recruitment, when hiring in the field rose above 5% around 2020 and 2021.

Broader economic pressures weigh on youth employment

Mehdi says the decline in youth hiring appears across industries, including jobs generally viewed as less affected by AI, making it difficult to isolate the technology as the cause. He points instead to competing forces such as trade dynamics, U.S. tariffs, immigration shocks and rapid population growth, all of which are affecting labour market conditions.

The research says employment growth for younger workers remains relatively weak in the post-pandemic period regardless of AI exposure. Mehdi says some youth may still be absorbing the aftershocks of labour market changes that followed the pandemic.

Viet Vu, manager of economic research at The Dais at Toronto Metropolitan University, says the findings fit a broader body of evidence suggesting AI's impact on the Canadian labour market cannot yet be clearly detected. He says fears about AI persist because the technology has the potential to affect every sector and may disrupt the traditional path from education to a first job and then to a longer-term career.

Vu says studies like this can help counter immediate fears around workforce disruption, even if they do not fully address longer-term uncertainty. The study's authors describe the results as early findings and say continued monitoring will be needed as AI adoption accelerates.

In our earlier article on how AI is raising the cost of “standing still” for companies, we explained that fast AI adoption is widening the gap between firms that adapt and those that remain merely adequate. We noted that businesses increasingly need to rethink investment priorities, workforce skills, and decision-making processes to protect competitiveness, as AI-driven productivity gains can quickly turn average performance into a disadvantage.

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