U.S. power demand to hit new highs as AI-driven data center use rises
U.S. electricity consumption is set to climb further in 2026 and 2027 after reaching a record in 2025, reflecting rising power use from artificial intelligence data centers and broader electrification. The outlook points to a third straight annual record in 2026, while the generation mix continues shifting toward renewables and away from coal.
Highlights
- U.S. electricity demand will rise to 4,306 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,370 billion kWh in 2027, driven by AI data centers and electrification.
- Natural gas will remain the dominant generation source at 40% in 2026, while renewables' share will climb from 24% in 2025 to 28% in 2027.
- EIA projects 2026 gas sales at 12.2 bcfd residential, 9.4 bcfd commercial, 23.8 bcfd industrial, and 37.4 bcfd for power generation.
EIA outlook signals sustained load growth
As reported by Reuters, citing the U.S. Energy Information Administration in its Short-Term Energy Outlook, total power demand is projected to increase from 4,216 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 4,306 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,370 billion kWh in 2027. If the forecast holds, 2026 marks the third consecutive year of record electricity consumption.The agency says demand is surging largely because of data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence. Households and businesses are also relying more on electricity and less on fossil fuels for heating and transportation.
The EIA forecasts power sales in 2026 at 1,546 billion kWh for residential users, 1,557 billion kWh for commercial customers and 1,061 billion kWh for industrial customers.
Generation mix shifts as gas stays dominant
As renewable output rises, coal's share of power generation is expected to fall from 17% in 2025 to 15% in 2026 and 2027. Natural gas is projected to hold steady at 40% in 2026 from 2025 levels before easing to 39% in 2027.Renewables are forecast to increase their share of generation from about 24% in 2025 to 25% in 2026 and 28% in 2027. Nuclear power's share is seen holding at 18% in both 2026 and 2027, unchanged from 2025.
The EIA also projects gas sales in 2026 will decline to 12.2 billion cubic feet per day for residential consumers and 9.4 bcfd for commercial customers, while rising to 23.8 bcfd for industrial users and 37.4 bcfd for power generation. Those figures compare with record highs of 14.3 bcfd in 1996 for residential consumers, 9.9 bcfd in 2025 for commercial customers, 23.8 bcfd in 1973 for industrial customers and 36.8 bcfd in 2024 for power generation.
We have previously noted how AI data center financing risks, construction delays, and power limits can slow US buildouts.
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