Urban Institute tracker shows rent burdens widen across U.S. states

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Urban Institute rent burden tracker

Highlights

Urban Institute's American Affordability Tracker shows rent exceeds one-third of average earnings in over half of U.S. states, with Hawaii and New York nearing 50%.
National real average weekly earnings remained flat, at about $1,310 in August 2021 versus $1,300 in August 2026, as inflation and energy costs outpaced wage growth.
Since January 2025, earnings outpaced rent growth in all but eight states, while national average gasoline prices surged from $3.05 per gallon to $4.48 by September 21, 2026.

Affordability tracker highlights rent strain

As reported by Business Insider, citing the Urban Institute, its American Affordability Tracker, published in late October, shows that renters in more than half of U.S. states face monthly housing costs that absorb over a third of average earnings. The data puts North Dakota at the lowest rent-to-earnings ratio, at 21.17%, while Hawaii and New York stand near 50%, pointing to especially severe cost burdens in those markets.

Yonah Freemark, a researcher at the Urban Institute, says affordability extends beyond housing alone and reflects whether households can still cover ordinary daily needs. He says many Americans feel their incomes no longer provide access to the same standard of living they had five years ago, especially after inflation and higher energy costs tied to the war in Iran weigh on budgets.

One indicator in the tracker, real average weekly earnings adjusted for inflation, shows national average earnings at about $1,310 in August 2021 and about $1,300 in August 2026. Freemark says workers lost ground during the post-pandemic inflation spike, and wage growth lags inflation for much of this year.

Regional pressures spread beyond costly hubs

The tracker suggests the heaviest rent burdens remain concentrated in states such as Hawaii, New York, and California, where housing demand is strong and construction has historically lagged. Freemark says those structural supply shortages have persisted for decades and continue to keep prices elevated.

At the same time, the tracker says childcare and housing costs have risen faster than earnings over the past decade, although earnings have grown faster than rents since January 2025 in all but eight states: Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. Freemark says projects launched in the early 2020s may now be adding supply and helping ease rent growth in some markets.

Affordability pressures are also spreading beyond traditional high-cost areas, including smaller cities such as Rochester, New York, and Louisville, Kentucky. Freemark says higher transportation costs are adding to the strain, particularly in car-dependent states, and the tracker shows the national average gasoline price rising to $4.48 a gallon on September 21, 2026, from $3.05 on January 6, 2025.

Freemark says policy responses could include lower-interest-rate loans, down-payment support and broader homeownership initiatives, while remote work could help reduce commuting costs for some households. He says the recent midterm election does not change the immediate affordability crisis, and that broader policy and labor market changes are still needed.

Earlier, we looked at soaring oil tanker rates that were lifting fuel and consumer costs as conflict disrupted key shipping routes.

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