EUR/CHF shows signs of reversal as wedge forms ahead of Swiss inflation data
EUR/CHF, locked in a multi-year downtrend, is showing early signs of a potential reversal as technical analysts point to a wedge formation emerging from the 2023 highs.
The recent slide to a new low below 0.9210 intensified concerns about prolonged franc strength, a development the Swiss National Bank (SNB) closely monitors. The SNB has repeatedly stated this year that the franc’s appreciation poses risks to an export-driven economy, and it has kept open the possibility of interventions or even the reinstatement of negative-rate tools should currency pressures persist, reports The Globe and Mail.
Despite the broader decline, market technicians note a meaningful shift in the short-term structure. From the latest lows, intraday charts show a five-wave advance, an impulsive pattern that traditionally signals the end of a higher-degree downtrend or the beginning of a recovery phase. Such formations often precede extended upside moves, albeit typically after a period of consolidation.
Traders focus on key levels ahead of inflation report
Market participants are now watching for confirmation in the form of price behavior around critical technical zones. Analysts say a dip into the 0.9276–0.9305 support region could offer an opportunity for traders looking to position for renewed strength in the pair, provided the market holds above the 0.9180 invalidation level. These dynamics come at a sensitive moment, with Switzerland’s latest inflation report due in the coming days—a release that could influence SNB policy expectations and serve as a catalyst for fresh upside if price pressures remain muted.
EUR/CHF currency pair dynamics (November 2025 – December 2025). Source: TradingView.
The interplay between technical signals and policy risk is shaping a more nuanced outlook for EUR/CHF after months of steady declines. While it is too early to call a decisive trend reversal, traders say the combination of wedge compression, impulsive intraday structure and looming macro data creates conditions for potential near-term volatility.
What happens next may hinge on whether the SNB shifts its tone in response to inflation or whether markets interpret tomorrow’s data as justification for further franc softness.
NZD/USD is holding above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, signaling short-term bullish momentum despite remaining below the long-term 200-day trend. Momentum indicators support further upside, but overbought oscillators point to a risk of a near-term pullback or consolidation.
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