Xi Jinping says China reaches 5% GDP growth by end-2025
China is on track to meet its 2025 GDP growth target of around 5%, President Xi Jinping said at the annual meeting of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, describing the year as “extraordinary” despite mounting global pressures.
Xi framed the milestone as evidence of resilience, while signaling that Beijing’s focus is shifting from rapid expansion to higher-quality, innovation-driven growth.
In a cautionary note, Xi warned against “reckless” investment projects and endorsed slower development in certain regions to reduce financial risks. His remarks come as policymakers juggle weak domestic demand, stress in the property sector and uneven recovery indicators, even as Beijing maintains a firm commitment to stabilizing growth.
PMI readings move back into expansion
Official economic gauges released this month support Xi’s message of improvement. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 50.1 in December, returning to expansion territory and beating forecasts of 49.2. The official composite PMI climbed to 50.7 from 49.7, signaling broader momentum across both factories and services.
The non-manufacturing PMI—which tracks services and construction—also rose to 50.2 from 49.5, suggesting improving activity beyond manufacturing. Huo Lihui of the National Bureau of Statistics cited stronger new orders and described the shift as a “significant expansion” in both supply and demand.
Private-sector data echoed the trend. A separate PMI from independent firm RatingDog increased to 50.1 from 49.9, exceeding expectations of 49.8. RatingDog founder Yao Yu said new orders have risen for seven consecutive months, supported by product launches and stronger business activity, although he noted that confidence for 2026 remains below normal.
Large firms lead as investors stay cautious
The recovery remains uneven. Large enterprises posted a PMI of 50.8, up 1.5 points, while medium-sized firms edged up to 49.8 and small businesses slipped further to 48.6. Markets responded cautiously: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.83%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 0.33%.
With the central bank holding loan prime rates steady and recent retail sales and industrial output missing forecasts, investors will watch whether Beijing introduces stronger policy support to turn late-year improvement into sustained momentum.
China’s central bank will launch a new oversight action plan for the digital yuan on Jan. 1, creating a formal framework to measure, manage and supervise the e-CNY as it moves beyond pilot programs. The step signals a shift from experimentation to full-scale institutionalization, integrating the CBDC more deeply into China’s monetary system.
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