Steady price for US dollar vs Japanese yen — MACD hints at ongoing upward bias

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Usd vs yen trades flat at ¥156.73

Highlights

USD/JPY trades at ¥156.73, above MA-20 (¥156.67), MA-50 (¥156.23), and MA-200 (¥150.58), confirming a bullish technical alignment across all timeframes.
Momentum indicators show a Strong Buy on the MACD daily chart with buyers dominating, while RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI signal no significant overbought or oversold conditions.
The projected range for the next five sessions is ¥156.20–¥157.40, with an 80%+ probability of price remaining stable or moving higher.

Strong technical bias as buyers dominate but conviction mixed

USD/JPY demonstrates strong technical positioning: it is holding above all key moving averages, and the nearest dynamic support is the Ichimoku Kijun at ¥156.10. Initial resistance sits at the MA-50 and the next round level of ¥157.00. Momentum indicators show a Strong Buy signal from the MACD on D1, while ADX is neutral and does not indicate strong trend conviction. Momentum remains positive, with buyer dominance shown on the Bull/Bear Power, but the Awesome Oscillator is neutral and there are no clear overbought or oversold signals from the RSI, Stochastic RSI, or CCI.

High upside probability as consolidation eyed near resistance

Looking ahead to the next five sessions, USD/JPY is likely to remain within a typical volatility band of ¥156.20–¥157.40. The probability of a continued upward move is very high (over 80%), with any decline seen as less likely. The baseline outlook sees the pair consolidating near the upper end of this range. Should bullish momentum prevail and resistance at ¥157.40 be broken, further gains may accelerate, while a breach of support at ¥156.10 could trigger a modest pullback.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that USD/JPY maintains a strong technical stance above all key moving averages, yet the lack of clear trend conviction from ADX and no decisive momentum from oscillators call for caution. He sees a likely consolidation within ¥156.20–¥157.40 in the coming sessions. Any upward breakout would require confirmation, while a drop below ¥156.10 could lead to a modest pullback. "Until resistance at ¥157.40 is broken with conviction, I remain cautious and will watch for confirmation before considering new long positions."

Last time, analysts noted that USD/JPY was holding just below its short-term moving average, with price action reflecting mild short-term pressure but maintaining a broader bullish trend above key medium- and long-term moving averages. Momentum indicators such as the MACD and RSI were mixed to mildly positive, with support identified near ¥156.10–¥156.18 and resistance above ¥156.50, suggesting a likely sideways drift within a bullish backdrop and breakout risk skewed to the upside.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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