Silver price forecast: XAG/USD rebounds above key EMAs ahead of NFP release

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Silver rebounds above 1-hour EMAs as traders await key U.S. NFP release

Highlights

Silver rebounds 1.6% from $74 low as NFP report draws investor focus
Rising geopolitical risks and dovish Fed expectations support safe-haven flows into silver
Dollar strength pressures silver while price holds above $77 cluster of intraday EMAs

Thursday’s session was marked by sharp downside action, which saw silver drop to a low of $74 before staging a mild recovery in the latter part of the session. Despite that rebound, silver still closed the day in loss, marking a second consecutive down close following Wednesday’s decline. These losses erased a significant portion of the earlier weekly gains and dragged the price closer to the lower bound of the broader consolidation range.

Silver price dynamics (Dec 2025 - Jan 2026). Source: Tradingview

Silver’s recent weakness can be traced to the strength of the U.S. dollar. Over the past two weeks, the U.S. dollar index has climbed steadily, breaking above a three-week high and advancing through multiple resistance EMAs. This upward movement in the dollar has weighed on dollar-denominated assets like silver, exerting downward pressure on prices through relative currency strength.

RSI turns positive as price approaches upper section of weekly consolidation range

However, Thursday’s late recovery and Friday’s modest gain are supported by a mix of factors. Rising geopolitical tensions in key regions have triggered safe-haven flows into precious metals, and investors are also positioning for a potentially dovish shift from the Federal Reserve. Market expectations are growing for additional interest rate cuts later in the year, which could reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver.

Technically, silver is now attempting to trade above the converged 20, 50, and 100 EMAs on the 1-hour chart near the $77 level. The daily and hourly RSI readings are both in positive territory, suggesting that momentum is gradually rebuilding. Price structure shows consolidation between the prior week's high at $84 and the week's low at $70, and Friday’s intraday action is testing the upper section of that range.

Weak NFP may trigger silver breakout above the $84 all-time high

If the Non-Farm Payroll data comes in weaker than the forecast of 66K, it may weigh on the US dollar and open room for a breakout above the consolidation ceiling. This could send the silver price into uncharted territory above $84, especially if volume expands to confirm the breakout. On the other hand, a strong jobs report could push the dollar higher and prompt a rejection at current levels.

In such a scenario, silver may retrace back below the cluster of short-term EMAs and potentially retest the $74 level. A decisive move below $74 could invite further losses toward the lower end of the range near $70, turning the weekly performance into net loss territory.

In recent analysis, we discussed how silver dropped 2.8% to a three-day low near $75.2 before stabilizing. Silver RSI turned bearish as focus shifted to U.S. jobs data and safe-haven demand faded.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.