Silver price forecast: XAG/USD drops 2.8% as focus shifts from geopolitics to macro data

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Safe-haven narrative fades for silver

Highlights

Silver drops to a 3-day low, but the 4-hour 50 EMA absorbed early session bearish pressure
RSI turns bearish as price breaks down toward the lower end of the consolidation range
Investors' attention shifts to U.S. jobs data as safe-haven flows fade quickly

The current decline follows a sharp rejection on Wednesday from the $84 resistance zone, a level that capped December’s all-time high. Price fell over 4% on Wednesday, marking a significant reversal from the bullish start to the week. Monday and Tuesday saw gains as geopolitical tensions drove safe-haven demand, but the mood has shifted as market focus turns back to economic fundamentals.

Silver price dynamics (Dec 2025 - Jan 2026). Source: Tradingview

The failure to break above $84 has now led to a visible consolidation between that resistance and the $70 psychological support. Since the final week of December 2025, silver has struggled to exit this broad price range. The technical rejection from $84 and the pullback toward the base of the range reinforce this sideways bias.

Silver traders eye Friday’s U.S. employment data for the next directional cue

Fundamentally, the recent downshift in sentiment is due in part to easing geopolitical concerns. Traders have started to discount the market reaction to the surprise U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. As that event fades into the background, attention has refocused on macroeconomic data from the U.S.

Later today, investors will monitor the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report, but the December U.S. employment data to be released on Friday is considered the more decisive trigger for silver’s next move. That report could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy and interest rate trajectories, which in turn will affect silver’s non-yielding appeal.

XAG/USD risks deeper slide below the $75 pivot level

Despite the pullback from $84, silver still holds a week-to-date gain of 4.4%. But that positive performance is now under threat as technical signals shift to a more bearish posture. The 4-hour RSI has slipped below the midpoint, pointing to growing downside pressure. If silver breaks decisively below the 4-hour 50 EMA that currently offers intraday support near $75, it could accelerate a move toward the lower boundary of the broader $70 to $84 consolidation range. That scenario would expose silver to deeper losses in the near term.

However, safe-haven interest tied to geopolitical events may limit that decline or offer support in the near-term, thus helping silver to recover today's losses and possibly retest the top resistance zone of the current consolidation.

In recent analysis, we discussed how silver slipped from $81.3 after hitting resistance near December’s all-time high. Overbought conditions triggered profit-taking following a 12% weekly rally despite safe-haven demand.

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