Nvidia stock dips 2.8% despite bullish $240 target from RBC

Highlights

Nvidia stock declined 2.8% to $181.95 despite bullish coverage from RBC, which set a $240 price target.
RBC cited Nvidia’s dominant position in AI infrastructure and attractive valuation relative to future earnings.
Technically, the stock is consolidating between $176 and $190, with a breakout above resistance likely to resume the uptrend.

Technically, Nvidia remains in a broader uptrend, supported by long-term moving averages. The 200-day moving average continues to rise steadily and sits well below the current price, confirming the multi-month bullish trend. The 50-day moving average, however, is now flattening near current levels and may act as a pivot in the coming sessions.

Momentum indicators suggest a lack of conviction in either direction. The 14-day RSI is hovering in neutral territory around 48–51, signaling no overbought or oversold conditions. The MACD histogram is flattening, implying that momentum has stalled without a clear directional bias.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (November 2025 - January 2025). Source: TradingView

Short-term resistance is evident in the $188–$190 range, where repeated rallies have failed to break through. A decisive close above this zone would likely trigger a renewed rally toward the $200 psychological level. On the downside, sustained weakness below $176 could accelerate declines toward deeper supports at $170 and $165. These levels are reinforced by volume profile gaps and previous breakout zones, which often serve as technical magnets in corrective phases.

RBC’s bullish stance highlights valuation and AI dominance

Nvidia’s stock movement follows a recently issued bullish call from RBC Capital Markets, where analyst Srini Pajjuri initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $240 price target. This represents more than 30% upside from current levels, based on what RBC views as an undervalued position for a dominant force in AI computing.

Pajjuri emphasized Nvidia’s leading role in the AI acceleration space, particularly with its dominance in the GPU market and its full-stack software-hardware ecosystem. According to RBC, Nvidia is currently trading at about 24x FY27 expected earnings, which is on the lower end of its historical valuation band, especially considering the magnitude of secular growth in AI infrastructure.

The note pointed to strong demand from cloud hyperscalers and data center partners, forecasting continued strength in Nvidia’s inference workloads and backlog visibility. While the analyst acknowledged growing competition from AMD and custom silicon, he maintained that Nvidia's superior software stack, developer ecosystem, and performance benchmarks provide a meaningful moat.

Key scenarios and near-term levels

In the bullish scenario, a strong breakout above $190 with supporting volume would shift momentum firmly back to the upside, opening the path toward $200 and potentially the $220–$240 range as per RBC’s forecast. Continued earnings beats and positive data center spending trends would reinforce this trajectory.

In the base case, the stock remains range-bound between $176 and $190 over the next 2–3 weeks, with technical and macro catalysts needed to trigger directional bias. In this scenario, buyers likely accumulate on dips while awaiting the next earnings report or broader AI investment trends to reassert upside momentum.

Recent developments in China have raised concerns about Nvidia’s growth outlook amid efforts to bypass U.S. export restrictions on advanced AI chips. Chinese firms are exploring offshore cloud rentals to access GPUs like the H100 and H200, which are barred from direct sale to China.

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