WTI crude oil price forecast: Geopolitical risk and India supply shifts support upside

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WTI crude price forecast

Highlights

WTI trades near $64.6, extending a three-day rally as geopolitical risk premiums remain embedded in prices.
Crude holds above key technical support after breaking its 2025 downtrend, signaling improving market structure.
Potential limits on India’s Russian oil purchases could disrupt global flows and tighten benchmark supply.

Technical structure turns constructive after breakout

From a technical perspective, WTI has strengthened notably since rebounding from late-December lows near $55. Prices have pushed above major moving averages, including the 50-day EMA near $62.5 and the longer-term 200-day averages clustered around $61. This alignment confirms a shift away from last year’s bearish trend and reflects growing confidence that downside risk is limited.

WTI price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The breakout above a long-standing descending trendline that capped rallies through most of 2025 has been particularly significant. Since that move, crude has established a pattern of higher lows, suggesting accumulation rather than speculative chasing. Current consolidation between $63 and $65 appears technically healthy, allowing momentum indicators to cool after a nearly $10 rally in less than two months.

Resistance remains concentrated in the $65–$66 zone. A sustained move above that area would open the door toward $67–$68, levels last seen during periods of heightened Middle East tension earlier this year.

Geopolitics and trade flows shape the fundamental outlook

Fundamentally, geopolitical uncertainty continues to support prices despite diplomatic engagement. While U.S. and Iranian officials have described recent talks in Oman as constructive, meaningful disagreements remain, particularly over uranium enrichment. U.S. warnings advising American-flagged vessels to avoid Iranian waters underscore that risks around the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. Roughly 20% of global oil flows through the corridor, making any disruption highly price-sensitive.

At the same time, attention is shifting toward Asia. Reports that a U.S.–India trade agreement may include provisions limiting Indian purchases of Russian crude have added a new layer of uncertainty. India has been one of the largest buyers of discounted Russian oil since 2022. Any forced reduction would push those barrels into alternative markets and could tighten supply for other buyers, indirectly supporting global benchmarks like WTI.

These developments arrive as traders already weigh expectations of higher non-OPEC supply later in 2026, creating a market caught between near-term geopolitical support and longer-term oversupply risks.

Outlook remains cautiously bullish

WTI’s technical recovery and persistent geopolitical risk argue against a sharp pullback in the near term. Support is firm near $63, while resistance at $65–$66 remains the key upside hurdle. Without a clear diplomatic breakthrough or abrupt demand shock, prices are likely to grind higher within this range.

As previously discussed, crude’s ability to reclaim and hold above its former downtrend suggests the market is transitioning from defensive positioning to cautious accumulation. Whether that shift extends into a sustained rally will depend on how geopolitical tensions and global trade realignments evolve over the coming weeks.

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