Natural gas price forecast: $3 support in focus as LNG politics reshape outlook

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Natural gas price forecast

Highlights

Natural gas trades near $3.008, testing key psychological support at $3.
Prices remain below all major moving averages, reinforcing bearish momentum.
Record LNG exports and rising power costs fuel political scrutiny ahead of midterms.

The retreat marks the continuation of a sharp unwind from January’s spike above $7.5, leaving the market close to levels last seen before the winter rally. Traders are now watching whether $3 can hold as a durable floor.

Technical pressure intensifies near the long-term trendline

From a technical standpoint, the structure remains decisively bearish. The 50-day EMA at $3.56, 100-day EMA at $3.818, 200-day EMA at $3.67, and longer 200-day MA at $3.82 form a dense resistance band between $3.55 and $3.85. Any sustained recovery would require reclaiming this zone.

Natural gas price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Bollinger Bands show a middle band near $3.99 and a lower band at $1.645, indicating prices are in the lower third of the recent range but not yet at extreme oversold levels. Natural gas is also testing a multi-year ascending support trendline around $3–$3.05 that has underpinned prices since mid-2024.

A confirmed break below this area could trigger accelerated selling toward $2.6–$2.8. Conversely, stabilization above $3 would suggest the market is attempting to base after the post-January collapse.

Export boom draws political attention

Fundamentally, domestic supply and weather trends continue to weigh on sentiment. However, the rapid expansion of LNG exports is becoming a central issue in U.S. energy policy discussions.

U.S. LNG exporters consumed a record 5,000 billion cubic feet of gas during January–November 2025, surpassing residential demand at 4,000 BCF and commercial demand at 3,000 BCF. Exports have surged 209% since 2019, far outpacing growth in other consumption categories.

This shift has coincided with a 61% rise in Henry Hub prices in 2025, contributing to higher electricity costs. With midterm elections approaching, lawmakers face pressure from consumers concerned about rising utility bills. Meanwhile, North American LNG capacity is projected to expand from 11.4 BCF in 2024 to 24.3 BCF by the end of 2027.

The pricing spread remains significant. LNG cargoes have fetched roughly $7.87 per MCF overseas compared with Henry Hub around $3.66 per MCF, underscoring the export incentive.

As previously discussed, natural gas has struggled to sustain weather-driven rallies once supply dynamics reassert themselves. The current test of $3 is another pivotal moment, with political and regulatory developments now joining weather and storage trends as potential market drivers.

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