Nvidia stock consolidates at $187 as RBC Capital reaffirms Outperform rating

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Nvidia stock consolidates

Highlights

RBC Capital reiterated its Outperform rating on Nvidia and maintained a $240 price target, citing expectations of a 3–4% quarterly beat.
The firm highlighted backlog visibility above $500 billion for 2025–2026 and confidence in gross margins despite rising memory costs.
Shares are consolidating near $187, with technical resistance at $190–$200 and support around $180.

Technically, Nvidia remains in a broader uptrend despite recent sideways price action. The stock is trading comfortably above its 200-day moving average, which is positioned near the $150 area, confirming that the long-term bullish structure remains intact. The 50-day moving average is currently hovering around $178–$180, acting as dynamic support during recent pullbacks. As long as the price holds above this zone, the medium-term trend favors buyers.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at $190, a level that has capped recent intraday advances. A sustained break above $190 would open the path toward the psychological $200 mark, followed by the 52-week high near $212. That $212 zone represents a critical breakout barrier; a decisive move above it would confirm a continuation pattern and potentially trigger momentum-driven buying.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (December 2025 - February 2026). Source: TradingView

On the downside, first support lies at $180, aligned with short-term moving averages and recent swing lows. Below that, $170 represents stronger structural support and coincides with prior consolidation zones. A break under $170 would weaken the current technical setup and expose the stock to a deeper retracement toward $160.

RBC sees $240 target as backlog may exceed $500 billion

RBC Capital reiterated its Outperform rating on Nvidia and maintained a $240 price target, pointing to expectations of another quarterly beat in the range of 3% to 4%, accompanied by upward guidance. The firm anticipates management will either reaffirm or increase the previously disclosed backlog figure of more than $500 billion for 2025 and 2026. That backlog visibility is central to RBC’s thesis, reinforcing revenue durability and demand strength across AI infrastructure deployments.

On profitability, RBC remains confident in Nvidia’s gross margin trajectory despite rising memory costs. The firm believes Nvidia has already secured high-bandwidth memory (HBM) pricing agreements through 2026, insulating margins from near-term supply chain inflation. This pricing visibility reduces earnings volatility risk and supports the case for sustained operating leverage as data center volumes scale. Importantly, RBC’s model does not incorporate potential upside from China-related H200 chip sales, implying room for forecast revisions should regulatory or demand conditions improve.

Looking ahead, RBC highlights several catalysts that could extend Nvidia’s growth cycle. The launch of Blackwell-trained frontier AI models and announcements at the upcoming GTC conference are expected to reinforce Nvidia’s technological leadership. In addition, supply-chain checks point to strong growth expectations for the Rubin platform, which could help sustain momentum into 2027. RBC also notes that Nvidia currently trades at a double-digit valuation discount relative to select semiconductor peers and Magnificent Seven companies, suggesting further multiple expansion potential if execution remains strong.

Range breakout likely toward $200

In the short term, Nvidia is likely to trade within the $180–$200 range, with $180 acting as key support. A sustained move above $190 on strong volume would increase the likelihood of a test of $200, while a confirmed breakout above $200 could accelerate gains toward $210–$215 as momentum flows intensify. Given supportive fundamentals and bullish analyst sentiment, this upside scenario remains the higher-probability outcome over the coming weeks.

Conversely, if Nvidia fails to hold $180 and breaks below $178 decisively, downside pressure could accelerate toward $170. A move under $170 would shift the short-term outlook to bearish and potentially extend losses toward $160. However, given ongoing institutional interest and supportive fundamentals, this bearish scenario appears less probable unless broader market risk-off conditions intensify.

Citi reiterated its Buy rating on Nvidia, expecting meaningful outperformance in the second half of fiscal 2026 driven by accelerating AI infrastructure demand and next-generation platforms such as Blackwell, B300 and Rubin. The firm forecasts revenue growth to re-accelerate above consensus estimates, supported by hyperscaler expansion, enterprise adoption and sustained gross margins backed by pricing power and supply-chain efficiency.

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