+2.11% for Gold — Iran conflict and universal tariff drive safe haven demand

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Gold gains 2.11% today on safe-haven demand

Highlights

Joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on March 2, 2026, have triggered intense geopolitical risk and global market volatility.
Safe haven demand for gold has surged as investors hedge against disruptions in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, fueling inflation and economic uncertainty.
Gold maintains strong bullish momentum trading at $5,389.45 above MA-20 ($5,109.28), with immediate support at $5,006.75 and a five-day range forecast of $5,100–$5,550.

Gold demand surges as Middle East conflict and tariffs amplify risk

On March 2, 2026, joint military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran—including the confirmed killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—have sharply escalated geopolitical risk and driven significant volatility across global markets. The immediate aftermath has seen investors rotate capital into gold due to the asset’s established status as a safe haven during periods of heightened conflict, particularly when war risks target oil-producing regions. The potential for sustained disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz has magnified concerns over global inflation, economic growth, and the stability of trade routes, all of which increase gold’s appeal as a hedge against macroeconomic and geo-economic stress. Additionally, U.S. trade policy uncertainty has intensified following court rulings and the announcement of a temporary universal tariff, introducing further unpredictability around costs, currency valuation, and central bank responses. Prolonged hostilities or economic measures that restrict energy or trade flows are likely to keep upward pressure on gold demand and volatility.

Momentum overbought as resistance nears on persistent volatility

Gold is trading at $5,389.45, well above the MA-20 ($5,109.28), MA-50 ($4,967.21), and MA-200 ($4,208.39), confirming strong bullish momentum in the short, medium, and long term. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $5,006.75 sits below the current price, acting as immediate support. Momentum remains positive with MACD signaling a buy and ADX on the daily timeframe at a neutral 16.96, reflecting modest trend strength, while on the weekly scale, both point to strong bullishness. Multiple oscillators flag potential overbought conditions (RSI at 68.02, Stochastic RSI at 100.00, CCI at 153.33), and Bull/Bear Power is overbought, indicating ongoing buyer control, while the Awesome Oscillator supports the bullish trend. The session saw a minor opening gap and a daily gain of 2.11% ($111.57), with the price near today’s high ($5,417.76), characterizing high volatility and showing continued strength toward the upper end of the range.

Upside potential dominates as volatility widens five-day range

Looking ahead five days, the expected range is adjusted to $5,100 – $5,550 to reflect recent volatility and the current level. The probability of a price increase over this period is very high (more than 80%), while a decline is less likely. The baseline scenario is continued sideways trading between $5,100 and $5,550. A bullish scenario would see a break above $5,550 and further highs if buying accelerates. A bearish scenario unfolds only if the price falls below the $5,100 support area, triggering deeper correction risk.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees gold’s current surge driven mainly by heightened geopolitical tensions and safe haven demand, but cautions that technicals point to overbought conditions. He notes bullish momentum remains strong above key moving averages, yet warns that price could swing if support at $5,100 fails. The base case is for range trading, but volatility is likely to persist given ongoing global risks. "Until gold breaks above $5,550 or loses $5,100, I remain cautious and see no clear edge for new longs here."

Previously it was reported that gold is exhibiting strong bullish momentum, trading well above key moving averages with all technical indicators except oscillators supporting upside, although several overbought signals have emerged. Near-term support is established above recent moving averages and Ichimoku levels, while resistance is forming closer to the $5,600 zone, suggesting a high probability of continued consolidation within a wide range as the market digests recent gains.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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