+1.31% for Gold as Trump threatens Iran’s energy infrastructure

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Gold rises 1.31% today to $4,572.68

Highlights

Oil jumped 3% as intensified Middle East conflict and missile attacks raised fears of supply disruptions and diplomatic fallout.
Persistent inflation and aggressive US tariffs are fueling global trade tensions, strengthening the US dollar and prompting central banks to boost gold reserves.
Gold is trading below key moving averages with short-term bearish signals but remains volatile, likely to hold within the $4,425–$4,680 range over five days.

Geopolitical escalation and central bank stance drive market instability

On March 30, 2026, oil surged by 3% as the Middle East war escalated, with Iran-backed Houthis launching ballistic missiles at Israel following US-Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities; this triggered a major diplomatic crisis and heightened fears of further regional supply disruptions. The Federal Reserve and other major central banks have adopted a hawkish stance, prioritizing price stability over liquidity by keeping interest rates elevated and resisting rate cuts despite persistent inflation, which has strengthened the US dollar and pressured gold. Trump has threatened to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure and to seize Iranian oil if ongoing negotiations do not produce an agreement, further raising the stakes in the conflict. New universal tariffs of 10% under Section 122 by the US administration, coupled with proposed 15–20% minimum tariffs on EU goods, are disrupting global trade and monetary expectations, contributing to inflation and prompting major central banks to reconsider easing policy. The ongoing US–Israel war on Iran and associated attacks in Lebanon and Iraq have caused prolonged uncertainty in global financial and energy markets, undermined de-dollarisation efforts, and led central banks to diversify reserves by increasing gold holdings amid elevated macro risks.

Intraday buyer strength diverges from bearish daily momentum

Gold’s price at $4,572.68 is trading below the SMA-20 ($4,668.19) and SMA-50 ($4,937.94), but remains above the SMA-200 ($4,416.92), suggesting short- and medium-term bearish pressure while long-term support persists. The Ichimoku Kijun at $4,671.31 stands as immediate resistance above the current price. Momentum signals are mixed: the MACD on D1 remains in strong sell territory and ADX points to active selling pressure, yet overbought signals from Stoch RSI and BBP indicate buyers are dominating recent intraday action. The RSI hovers at 36.27, in a neutral-to-weak zone, and CCI is also neutral, while the Awesome Oscillator does not clearly reinforce the prevailing trend. Gold opened today with a gap up from the previous close and currently trades near the upper end of its intraday range, reflecting high volatility and continued strength toward session highs. There is a clear divergence between daily momentum (bearish) and the strong intraday buyer momentum, revealing some instability in short-term sentiment.

Sideways price range expected amid upside breakout risk

For the next five trading days, the expected range is $4,425 to $4,680, keeping within a typical volatility band relative to current levels. There is a very high probability (more than 80%) of a price increase, with a move lower considered much less likely. Baseline scenario: price holds in a sideways corridor between $4,425 and $4,680. A breakout above $4,680 could open the way to higher gains if momentum sustains, while a drop below $4,425 would expose gold to renewed selling, testing long-term support.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees gold trading with short-term bearish pressure but long-term support intact, as geopolitical instability and hawkish central banks drive high volatility. He notes daily downside momentum and cautious sentiment, despite strong intraday buying and a high probability of a move higher in the near term. With the Federal Reserve’s stance and ongoing Middle East crisis adding further risk, he remains defensive. "Base case is sideways between $4,425 and $4,680 — until we break out, I see no clear reason to trust upside momentum."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold’s price action was defined by a clash between bearish momentum and persistent safe-haven buying, leading to pronounced short-term volatility. The current backdrop of escalating geopolitical conflict, firmer central bank policies, and renewed global trade tensions amplifies macro uncertainty, making a breakout above $4,680 the pivotal level for traders seeking confirmation of renewed bullish momentum.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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