US-Iran tensions keep Gold flat near current levels

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Gold gains 0.34% today to $4,665.70

Highlights

Gold prices are underpinned by heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with traders watching U.S.-Iran and U.S.-Israeli developments alongside U.S. inflation data.
China's central bank extended its monthly gold purchases to 17 consecutive months, boosting reserves to 74.38 million fine troy ounces by March end.
Gold trades in a sideways range between $4,620 and $4,700, with technical signals indicating high odds of further price gains unless support fails.

Geopolitical risks and central bank buying shift sentiment

Gold trading is being shaped by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty as traders monitor potential developments in U.S.-Iran relations and await U.S. inflation data. The recent softening of the U.S. dollar and a decline in oil prices are contributing to market shifts, with investor attention also focused on the evolving U.S.-Israeli conflict involving Iran. Additionally, China's central bank has extended its gold buying streak to a 17th consecutive month, increasing reserves to 74.38 million fine troy ounces by the end of March.

Sideways consolidation develops amid mixed momentum signals

Momentum on the daily timeframe remains weak for XAU, with both MACD and ADX signaling a selling bias. RSI stands at a neutral-to-weak level of 46.26, while CCI is modestly positive and Stoch RSI is neutral, reflecting limited conviction among oscillators. BBP points to overbought conditions, indicating buyer dominance in intraday flows; however, the Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not confirm the upward move. The current price is mid-range within today’s span of $4,621.93 to $4,693.73, after a small gap up at the open and a modest daily gain of $15.93 (0.34%), with volatility staying moderate. Mixed signals from oscillators and momentum indicators highlight ongoing divergence and a pattern of sideways consolidation following the early session strength.

Upside scenario likely as weekly technicals turn bullish

Over the next five trading days, XAU is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band between $4,620 and $4,700, with sideways trading remaining the most likely short-term scenario. There is a very high probability (exceeding 80%) of further price gains, as strong buy signals are registered across the weekly RSI, ADX, MACD, and MA-50. Should gold break above the immediate resistance near $4,700, this would likely trigger renewed upward momentum, while a drop below $4,620 could open the way for tests of longer-term support levels. As long as XAU holds above the long-term moving averages and stays above immediate supports on a closing basis, the market structure remains constructive.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, highlights that gold remains fundamentally supported by robust central bank buying and global uncertainty. He sees short-term consolidation amid moderate volatility, with key levels at $4,620 and $4,700 shaping near-term direction. Medium-term signals are still constructive, as weekly momentum and sentiment stay bullish despite some daily indicator divergence. Karapetjanc emphasizes that macro factors and ongoing demand should provide a firm base for gold. "As long as gold trades above its primary moving averages and immediate supports, I expect renewed upside if resistance near $4,700 gives way."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold was exhibiting mixed technical momentum amid heightened geopolitical risk and strong safe-haven flows. The current analysis strengthens this outlook by highlighting that, despite ongoing sideways consolidation, a sustained break above $4,700 could serve as a catalyst for renewed bullish momentum.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.