+0.56% for Gold as global oil trade disruptions sustain inflation risk

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Gold rises 0.56% today to $4,746

Highlights

Gold prices advanced after a US-Iran ceasefire reduced immediate geopolitical risks and calmed energy-driven inflation fears.
Despite diplomatic progress, investors remain cautious due to persistent regional instability and ongoing oil market disruptions fueling inflation uncertainty.
Technicals signal strong short- and long-term bullish bias; price is expected to trade sideways in $4,550–$4,800 with high probability of holding above support.

Ceasefire tempers geopolitical risk as investors brace for renewed tensions

On Wednesday, gold prices rose following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, which temporarily paused military action and allowed negotiations to begin, reducing immediate geopolitical tensions and easing fears of an escalation-driven energy supply shock. The conflict had previously driven energy prices sharply higher, raising inflation expectations and prompting central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve, to signal the possibility of maintaining or increasing interest rates in response to persistent inflation above target levels. Despite the diplomatic pause, analysts and investors remain alert to the risk of renewed hostilities, continued regional instability, and ongoing disruptions to the global oil trade, all of which sustain elevated inflation risk and uncertainty around future monetary policy actions.

Buyer dominance wanes as mixed momentum and overbought signals emerge

Momentum signals on the daily timeframe are mixed. The MACD shows strong bearish momentum while the ADX signals sell, suggesting that upward movement is losing strength in the near term. Meanwhile, the RSI and CCI remain in buy territory, and the Stoch RSI along with BBP indicate deep overbought conditions, highlighting persistent buyer dominance along with the risk of short-term exhaustion. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral. After a gap up from the previous close of $4,719.48 to an open of $4,778.97, prices have pulled back and are now trading near the middle of the session's range ($4,699.47 – $4,789.96) with moderate volatility, reflecting a mixed intraday tone with early buyer control but waning momentum.

Sideways to bullish bias as volatility limits downside risk

In the short term, Gold is expected to trade within a $4,550 to $4,800 band reflecting typical volatility and centering near current levels. The probability of further price increases is very high, above 80%, making a pullback less likely. The baseline scenario favors sideways movement near the mid-$4,700s. A bullish break above $4,800 is possible if strong momentum resumes, while a bearish scenario could play out if immediate support at $4,570 is breached, potentially sending prices down toward $4,550.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees gold’s strong position above key moving averages as a sign of underlying bullish sentiment. He highlights that easing geopolitical risk has tempered inflation fears, but uncertainty remains high due to unstable global conditions. The analyst notes mixed momentum signals, with buyers still in control despite some signs of short-term exhaustion. Karapetjanc believes the $4,570 support is critical for near-term stability. "In my view, the fundamental and macro backdrop clearly favors gold, and further gains above $4,800 are likely if the market regains momentum."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold maintained a broadly bullish outlook supported by elevated central bank demand and ongoing geopolitical risks, though caution was advised due to mixed technical momentum and heightened volatility. The latest developments underscore this bias, with market attention now centered on whether gold can sustain its run and stage a decisive breakout above the $4,800 mark in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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