+4.22% for Nvidia stock as U.S. Department of Defense announces new AI deals

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Nvidia gains 4.22% to $205.31 today

Highlights

Nvidia secured new agreements to supply AI technology to the U.S. Department of Defense, boosting long-term government demand.
Exposure to a potential 100% U.S. semiconductor tariff and expanded Asian partnerships increases regulatory and supply chain risks for Nvidia.
Nvidia maintains bullish momentum with high probability of further gains, trading in the $200.00–$215.00 range amid elevated volatility and mixed technical signals.

Government contracts boost demand as tariffs and Asian ties raise risks

Nvidia has expanded its government business through new agreements with the U.S. Department of Defense, providing AI technology and reinforcing its profile as a strategic supplier for military operations. This move elevates long-term demand for Nvidia’s products and enhances its role within regulated markets. At the same time, the company faces fresh risks from a 100% U.S. tariff on semiconductors, which could disrupt global supply chains and cross-border operations. Deepening partnerships with Asian technology firms broaden regional collaborations but also increase Nvidia's exposure to supply and policy changes in these markets.

Bullish MACD and gap up as trend shows volatility but lacks conviction

Current price action shows Nvidia above the SMA-20 ($199.19), SMA-50 ($187.43), and SMA-200 ($184.10), with the Ichimoku Kijun at $190.55 acting as immediate support. MACD presents a strong buy signal while ADX remains neutral, pointing to a trend that is in development but not yet strongly established. The RSI at 51.36 and a neutral CCI indicate a balanced market without pronounced overbought or oversold pressures, while Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) point to oversold territory and recent seller dominance. The Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, providing limited directional insight, while trading activity opened with a gap up and the price is near today’s high of $206.79, highlighting increased volatility.

Rally extension likely with bullish signals, pullback risk if below support

Over the next five trading days, NVDA is projected to fluctuate within a $200.00–$215.00 volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of additional price gains remains high (more than 80%), supported by bullish confirmation from RSI, MACD, and weekly trend indicators. In the baseline scenario, price consolidates above support at $190.55, while a move above $215.00 could signal extension of the rally into new high territory. A short-term bearish scenario could be triggered if price falls below $200.00, potentially resulting in a minor pullback without undermining the broader uptrend.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees Nvidia maintaining solid momentum, supported by strong government contracts and positive technicals. He believes the recent Department of Defense agreements reinforce Nvidia’s long-term role as a key supplier in regulated sectors. Fresh tariffs and legal risk could spark volatility but do not outweigh the constructive macro and sentiment environment. The analyst expects price to stay above main support with high odds of further gains short term. "I believe Nvidia’s expanding strategic footprint and current market positioning favor a bullish outlook above $200.00 in the coming days."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia’s strong institutional support and expanding partnerships were driving sustained upside momentum despite mixed technical signals and regulatory headwinds. The latest developments in government contracts and evolving tariff risks broaden Nvidia’s strategic outlook, making price action around the $215 level a pivotal indicator for a potential breakout in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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