Marathon Digital stock price forecast: $11.49 support as MARA falls 5.31%

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Marathon Digital drops 5.31% today

Highlights

Marathon Digital posted a larger-than-expected Q1 loss, pressured by an 18.4% decline in revenue amid Bitcoin volatility and lower production.
The company began a strategic shift by acquiring Long Ridge and launching an AI-focused infrastructure joint venture, incurring a $45.9 million restructuring charge and cutting 15% of staff.
Technically, shares trade below key moving averages and face ongoing bearish momentum, with a forecast range of $10.60–$12.90 and downside risk prevailing.

Broader selling persists amid wider losses and strategic overhaul

Marathon Digital reported a larger-than-expected loss for the first quarter of 2026, as a result of significant Bitcoin price volatility and an 18.4% drop in year-over-year revenues from lower Bitcoin values and production levels. The company also initiated a strategic transformation by acquiring Long Ridge and forming a joint venture with Starwood to repurpose its power assets for AI-focused infrastructure, which accompanied higher administrative expenses and a $45.9 million restructuring charge. Additionally, Marathon Digital reduced its workforce by 15%, aiming for $12 million in annualized savings, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed bullish signals as momentum wavers below resistance

MARA is situated below the SMA-20 at $12.09 and the SMA-200 at $12.77, while continuing to trade above the SMA-50 at $10.29. Immediate support is indicated by the Ichimoku Kijun at $11.49, while resistance aligns with the SMA-20. The MACD on the daily timeframe signals a strong buy, although the ADX at 22.94 highlights only moderate trend strength. Momentum indicators paint a mixed short-term picture, with an RSI reading of 56.61 suggesting mild bullish momentum, Stoch RSI at 10.54 and CCI at 45.16 pointing to oversold conditions, and BBP at 0.32 indicating intraday buyer dominance within a volatile range.

Downside risk prevails while weak recovery limits upside

For the coming week, MARA is expected to fluctuate within a $10.60 – $12.90 volatility band relative to current levels. The likelihood of a sustained price increase remains low, with downside risks prevailing. Should the asset recover and hold above $12.09, there is scope for a move toward $12.90, while a fall below $11.49 would open potential declines to $10.60 or below.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees continued weakness in MARA following a sharp earnings miss and persistent operational restructuring. He notes tactical support at $11.49 and resistance at $12.09, with recent cost cuts offset by restructuring charges and sector headwinds. Cautious sentiment dominates as downside risks remain elevated. "Until MARA reclaims $12.09 and shows stronger post-earnings conviction, I remain defensive on the stock."

Earlier, analysts noted that Marathon Digital’s short- and medium-term technical signals were generally bullish, though tempered by overbought conditions and heightened volatility. The latest results and ongoing strategic pivot underscore persistent downside risks, making the $11.49 support level a critical line to monitor for potential further declines in the near term.

Source of Data: MARA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.