Nvidia stock rallies with session highs tested after an upbeat trading day

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Nvidia gains 1.61% today to $224.77

Highlights

Beijing has formally banned Nvidia's China-specific RTX 5090D V2 chip, blocking access to a significant gaming GPU market.
This regulatory move curtails short-term revenue prospects for Nvidia's gaming segment and underscores ongoing risks in critical growth markets.
NVDA trades in a strong bullish trend, projected to range between $220 and $235 with high probability of further upside.

Gaming GPU sales cut as Beijing bans China-specific RTX chip

Beijing has imposed new restrictions on Nvidia's China-specific RTX 5090D V2 gaming chip, formally banning the product during the Trump-Xi summit. This regulatory move curtails Nvidia's access to the Chinese gaming GPU market, directly cutting off a key regional sales opportunity and impacting its near-term gaming segment outlook. While this action weighs on immediate revenue prospects, it highlights the ongoing regulatory challenges the company faces in a critical growth market.

Bullish signals build as mixed momentum moderates advance

On the technical front, NVDA trades above the SMA-20 ($212.34), SMA-50 ($194.72), and SMA-200 ($186.43), with immediate Ichimoku Kijun support at $213.66. The trading session opened with a minor gap down but quickly reversed, surging into a tight daily range between $218.07 and $224.40, near session highs. Bullish signals appear in the daily MACD and ADX, though the ADX moderate reading suggests the trend is still developing. RSI sits at 60.55 and CCI at 67.83, both in buy territory but below overbought, while Stoch RSI is neutral. BBP indicates clear overbought pressure intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, resulting in a mixed momentum profile.

Upside bias persists as volatility shapes short-term range

For the next five trading days, NVDA is expected to trade within a range of $220 to $235, based on typical volatility relative to current levels. The probability of a price increase is high, suggesting a likely consolidation above immediate support. A sustained bullish scenario could see a break above $235 to new highs if momentum persists, while a move below $220 would threaten technical support, though this appears unlikely under current market conditions.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, believes NVDA faces meaningful headwinds after the latest Beijing ban on the RTX 5090D V2 chip. He sees the regulatory setback directly impacting gaming segment momentum, even as technicals remain bullish for now. Defensive signals persist in some oscillators, tempering upside conviction. "Until NVDA reclaims fresh highs above $235, I’m staying cautious despite the strong trend," Kharitonov says.

Previously it was reported that Nvidia maintained bullish momentum above key technical supports despite increasing regulatory headwinds in China, with analysts closely watching whether the stock could sustain its upward trajectory. The current environment builds on this view, as ongoing strength above major moving averages and fresh gains reinforce the near-term upside scenario, making a decisive close above $235 a key trigger for renewed momentum.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.