Natural gas tests strong resistance amid demand recovery and LNG market risks
After several weeks of consolidation, the natural gas market has resumed a confident upward move. Henry Hub prices have risen above $3.3/MMBtu, gaining more than 20% over the past month.
The key drivers include stronger summer electricity demand in the United States, a recovery in LNG export flows following maintenance at terminals, and expectations of hotter weather in the second half of June.
Global LNG market remains tight
The current rally is no longer driven solely by U.S. factors. The global LNG market is increasingly influencing price dynamics, as the availability of spot volumes remains limited. Supply disruptions in the Middle East and ongoing risks to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz continue to support a risk premium in gas prices. Analysts note that the market is becoming more sensitive to any LNG supply-related news, while the global balance remains tight even after local corrections.
Europe remains a key source of support
The European market is entering the gas injection season amid heightened uncertainty. Storage levels remain below comfortable thresholds, and competition with Asia for LNG supplies may intensify closer to autumn. An additional supportive factor is Europe’s continued reliance on U.S. LNG, making European demand one of the primary bullish drivers for the global gas market in the coming months.
Outlook: buyers retain the advantage
In the short term, the market structure appears moderately bullish. Despite relatively comfortable gas inventories in the U.S., rising cooling demand, increasing LNG exports, and persistent geopolitical risks are creating conditions for further price increases. As long as prices hold above key support levels, market participants are likely to view pullbacks as buying opportunities rather than the start of a bearish reversal.
Near-term outlook
After finding support around the psychological level of $3.00, NATGAS prices once again tested resistance near $3.24 but failed to break through, leading to a pullback toward the local support at $3.15. From this level, another attempt to retest the mentioned resistance is possible, and a breakout could open the way toward $3.30. A loss of support, as noted in Natural gas resumes growth after pullback, would likely result in a decline toward $3.05–3.00.
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