DOJ freeze on scam-linked crypto pulls Coinbase stock down 6.07%

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Coinbase drops 6.07% to $154.03

Highlights

Coinbase introduced pre-IPO perpetual futures on its International Exchange, starting with SpaceX, targeting increased institutional trading and private equity exposure.
Coinbase froze over $3 million in crypto linked to Southeast Asian scams, demonstrating a proactive global anti-fraud stance.
Technicals remain bearish as COIN trades below key averages with high downside probability; price is expected to consolidate in the $143.02–$165.04 range barring a breakout or breakdown.

Institutional access expands as futures launch and anti-fraud efforts intensify

Coinbase launched pre-IPO perpetual futures contracts on its International Exchange, beginning with SpaceX as the underlying asset, expanding its derivatives suite and creating new channels for institutional trading activity. This move is designed to increase institutional participation and transaction-driven revenue through specialized access to private equity exposures. Separately, Coinbase froze over $3 million in cryptocurrency tied to Southeast Asian scam operations in partnership with the Department of Justice and other technology firms, reflecting its role in global anti-fraud efforts. Both developments occurred as price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold readings and conflicting signals as resistance persists

COIN is positioned below the MA-20 at $165.43, the MA-50 at $174.63, and the MA-200 at $245.40. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $169.16 marks immediate resistance. MACD and ADX both indicate a sell signal, while the RSI at 29.63, CCI, and BBP all show oversold and seller-dominated conditions. Stoch RSI signals a strong buy, even as the Awesome Oscillator confirms ongoing bearish momentum. Divergences between oscillators and momentum indicators highlight potential for a near-term rebound, though direction remains unconfirmed.

Downside risk prevails as breakout and reversal odds stay weak

COIN's short-term trading range is expected to remain within $143.02 to $165.04, consistent with typical volatility levels given current sentiment. The probability of an upward move is low at 22%, while downside risk is more pronounced at 78%. The baseline scenario sees price consolidating in this corridor, with a breakout above $169.16 possibly triggering short covering and upward momentum. Conversely, a decisive drop below $143.02 could extend the recent downtrend as oversold pressure persists.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees COIN under continued downside pressure despite product innovation and regulatory cooperation. Momentum indicators remain bearish and oversold signals suggest a weak technical backdrop. He remains cautious as long as price trades below $169.16 resistance, with risk of further downside if $143.02 breaks. "Base case remains range-bound with downside risk dominant — until resistance clears, I don't trust the upside."

Earlier, analysts noted that sustained bearish momentum and subdued trading activity were weighing on Coinbase’s share price despite institutional partnership developments. Building on this, the current technical landscape underscores a dominant downside risk, making any break below $143.02 a potential trigger for further weakness investors should closely monitor.

Source of Data: COIN Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.