As of June 10, 2026, U.S. natural gas prices are hovering around $3.00/MMBtu, remaining approximately 11% below last year's levels, despite a monthly increase in prices. The market continues to face pressure from elevated inventories, which are currently about 5% above the five-year seasonal average, limiting the potential for a sustained upside reversal.
Why prices are declining
The main driver behind the current weakness is a slowdown in LNG export flows. In June, LNG feedgas deliveries fell to 16.3 bcfd from 17.1 bcfd in May, as seasonal maintenance at facilities such as Golden Pass and Freeport LNG has temporarily reduced export capacity. At the same time, production across the Lower 48 states remains robust, averaging around 108.8–109.7 bcfd, continuing to support a comfortable supply balance.
What traders should watch
The current decline appears more like a correction within a broader trading range rather than a complete trend reversal. Weather-related demand could provide temporary support, as forecasts point to above-normal temperatures through June 24, increasing natural gas consumption for power generation due to cooling needs. However, this support is not yet sufficient to offset the pressure from elevated inventories and weaker LNG exports.
Risks and scenarios
For the short-term market outlook, the primary risk is a further deterioration in LNG export flows combined with persistently high inventories, which would increase downward pressure on prices. The market is likely to find meaningful support only if summer demand strengthens considerably or production declines more noticeably. Without these factors, natural gas is expected to remain in a mild downtrend, characterized by sharp but limited rebounds.
Following the recent decline, NATGAS prices found support near the $2.95 level and are currently attempting to break above $3.00. A successful breakout and sustained move above this level could signal a resumption of the upward trend toward the $3.15–3.20 area. Otherwise, a failure to hold above resistance may lead to a break below support and a decline toward $2.85–2.80, where buying interest may also emerge, as previously discussed in Natural gas declines amid elevated inventories and weak LNG demand.
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