Can SpaceX's financials support its market valuation?

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Mykhailo Ihnatenko

1 hour ago

Can SpaceX's financials support its market valuation?

SpaceX shares continue to surge following the largest IPO in history. The company's market capitalization has already exceeded $2.5 trillion, bringing it within striking distance of Amazon in the ranking of the world's most valuable companies.

Investors also reacted positively to reports that SpaceX is considering the acquisition of Cursor for approximately $60 billion. The potential deal aligns with Elon Musk's broader strategy of integrating space technology, artificial intelligence, and computing infrastructure.

However, these positive developments also represent the biggest risk for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. The company has been publicly traded on the Nasdaq for only a few days, yet its market capitalization already ranks among the ten most valuable companies in the world, currently holding the seventh position.

Market participants still know very little about SpaceX's financial performance. Investors do not yet have access to comprehensive financial statements and therefore cannot objectively assess the company's revenue growth, profitability, or cash flow generation. Nevertheless, the company is already reportedly considering a $60 billion acquisition.

In practice, the current valuation is largely based on expectations of SpaceX's future dominance in the space industry, the continued expansion of Starlink, potential synergies with Elon Musk's AI ventures, and investor confidence in Musk himself.

The company's next earnings report is not expected until September. Only then will investors be able to compare SpaceX's valuation with its actual financial results.

Potential profit-taking puts SPCX to the test

SPCX has followed the well-known "IPO Second Day" strategy. The concept suggests that if a stock rises on its first day of trading, there is a high probability that it will also close higher on its second day.

However, the third trading day often becomes a period of profit-taking by short-term traders.

Because early institutional investors are typically subject to lock-up periods ranging from 90 to 180 days, any profit-taking at this stage is unlikely to trigger a large-scale cascade of selling.

The main risk remains the high proportion of retail investors and the stock's extremely limited free float. Under such conditions, even modest profit-taking can trigger sharp price swings.

For today, SPCX is expected to test the previous session's closing price near $192.50. A break below this support level could lead to a decline toward $188.

If buyers manage to hold the stock above $200, the next likely target would be the pre-market resistance zone around $208.50.

SpaceX trades on expectations, not results

Despite its impressive rally, the key question remains unchanged: how well does the company's current valuation reflect its underlying financial performance?

SpaceX possesses a unique portfolio of assets, including its leading space launch business, Starlink, integration with xAI, and the potential acquisition of Cursor. However, the market already appears to be pricing in a substantial portion of the company's future growth.

That is why the coming weeks could serve as an important test. If investor enthusiasm remains strong, the stock may continue advancing toward new highs. Otherwise, the market may begin searching for a more sustainable fundamental justification for its current valuation.

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