Recent session low support steadies US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel trading

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US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel down 0.64%

Highlights

The U.S. and Iran will formalize a peace accord ending military hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and granting Iran immediate sanctions relief.
Israel refuses to recognize the agreement and will sustain its military posture in southern Lebanon, intensifying regional uncertainties.
USD/ILS trades below key moving averages with strong momentum signals, suggesting a likely bullish rebound within the ₪2.9133–₪2.9495 range over 2–3 days.

Peace accord drives sentiment shift amid Israeli resistance

The United States and Iran are set to formally sign a bilateral agreement establishing a permanent end to military hostilities, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the launch of long-term peace negotiations. The accord will reportedly bring immediate sanctions relief for Iran, release frozen assets, and create a $300 billion development and reconstruction fund. Israel has declared it will not abide by the U.S.-Iran agreement and will maintain its military presence in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah’s leadership described the deal as a 'great victory' to be leveraged for increased pressure on Israel, highlighting the complex geopolitical dynamics now facing US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel.

Bullish momentum emerges as price tests resistance cluster

On the hourly timeframe, USD/ILS is trading below the MA-20 and just above the MA-50, while both levels remain well beneath the long-term MA-200. Immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at ₪2.9364, with intraday support near the recent session low. MACD and ADX momentum indicators show a strengthening upward shift, with both RSI and Stoch RSI delivering robust buy signals. CCI remains neutral, signaling no overbought or oversold conditions, while BBP suggests buyers dominate the session and the Awesome Oscillator stays neutral.

Breakout favored as volatility narrows within trading range

Over the next 2–3 trading days, the anticipated volatility range lies between ₪2.9133 and ₪2.9495, representing the typical band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move is very high, with a breakout above resistance as the main bullish scenario. Conversely, a bearish case would involve a breakdown below support, though this is considered very unlikely given prevailing conditions. The baseline outlook is for sideways trading within the established corridor.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights the profound impact of the U.S.–Iran agreement on regional sentiment. He sees immediate relief in geopolitical risk, aided by sanctions changes and renewed trade prospects, as favoring a constructive backdrop for the shekel. However, the analyst notes Israel’s opposition and ongoing frictions in Lebanon could limit upside for USD/ILS. Karapetjanc believes technicals show the pair poised for strength but expects volatility to stay elevated. "Macro fundamentals have improved and bullish momentum is growing — I expect sideways-to-higher trading as new flows and risk shifts play out."

Earlier, analysts noted that while USD/ILS had shown near-term strength, longer-term bearish pressure remained a prevailing concern. The emergence of a landmark U.S.-Iran agreement introduces significant new geopolitical risk, making it essential for traders to monitor for abrupt directional moves outside the typical volatility corridor as regional developments unfold.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.