US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel drops more than 1% after pair retreats toward near-term support

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Us dollar/shekel slides 1.09% today

Highlights

USD/ILS currently trades below short- and long-term moving averages, signaling prevailing bearish pressure despite recent support levels.
Momentum and trend indicators show bullish bias with overbought dynamics, suggesting elevated upside risk amid ongoing buying interest.
USD/ILS is expected to remain within ₪2.9681–₪3.0273 over the next five sessions, with an 80% probability of upward movement if resistance breaks.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, raises concerns over the technical weakness in USD/ILS as price action is capped by the 20-day and 200-day moving averages. He points out that the long-term bearish technical alignment and mild overbought conditions limit the pair's upside. Lack of recent news flow leaves sentiment fragile, reducing potential for strong bullish reversals. Kharitonov believes that sustained downward momentum increases risk, especially if support at ₪2.996 fails. "Until the technical structure improves and fundamentals turn supportive, I advise caution on upside bets here."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/ILS maintaining a bullish posture overall. He notes that, despite a short-term dip, the medium-term trend remains positive and major technical oscillators point to buyers retaining control. With volatility contained and key support holding above ₪2.9681, he favors an upside scenario in coming sessions. "The bullish structure remains intact and further growth is expected as the market offers multiple setups above near-term support levels."

Short-term downside prevails as mixed momentum meets support test

USD/ILS is currently trading below the 20-day moving average (₪2.9998) and the 200-day moving average (₪3.0597), but remains above the 50-day moving average (₪2.9395). This structure signals short-term downside pressure, a medium-term positive trend, and a bearish long-term alignment, with the Ichimoku Kijun at ₪2.9686 offering near-term support just below the price. The nearest support sits at ₪2.996, while resistance aligns with the near-term ceiling at ₪2.9979. Momentum readings are mixed: the MACD suggests strong upside, ADX also points to buying activity, but the RSI at 61.72, Stochastic RSI at 34.49, and CCI all indicate mild overbought conditions. The Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at 0.0268 shows intraday buyers remain in control, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral. The pair opened almost flat, finding itself near the intraday low after slipping ₪0.0329 (1.09%). Volatility amplitude reached 1.21% for the session. Seller-driven pressure has dominated after the open, consistent with some overbought corrections.

Earlier, analysts noted that bullish momentum in USD/ILS was limited by persistent technical resistance, keeping the long-term outlook uncertain. The latest shifts in momentum and moving average alignment add a new dimension, highlighting that a sustained break above recent resistance is now crucial for traders anticipating a return to a stronger bullish phase.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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