Makerfield vote count tests Labour leadership as Burnham eyes by-election win

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Makerfield vote tests Labour

Highlights

Burnham signals readiness to challenge Starmer for Labour leadership if he wins the Makerfield by-election, intensifying internal party tensions.
Reform UK targets Makerfield as a top-30 seat, but risks vote splitting with far-right Restore Britain, potentially easing Labour’s hold on the constituency.
Labour cabinet ministers consider resignations and Wes Streeting claims support from 81 MPs to trigger a leadership contest if Starmer refuses to step down.

By-election count and leadership stakes

As reported by Financial Times, Burnham has told supporters he is ready to try to replace Starmer if he wins the Makerfield by-election, turning the contest into a test of Labour's internal stability as well as its electoral strength.

The Greater Manchester mayor says “change is coming”, and his team remains confident the Labour candidate can fend off a challenge from Nigel Farage's Reform UK in the constituency on the edge of Greater Manchester. Most Labour MPs believe Starmer, described by critics inside the party as deeply unpopular in polling, struggles to contain the political threat posed by Burnham's standing in northern England.

If Burnham wins, his supporters expect him to hold talks with Starmer in the coming days to see whether the prime minister can be persuaded to agree a timetable for leaving Number 10 and allowing an orderly transition. Starmer, however, insists he will “not walk away” from Downing Street or the five-year mandate Labour secured at the 2024 general election, setting up the prospect of a bitter internal contest.

Pressure on Reform and wider UK impact

Reform says it is still “in with a shout”, and Farage has spent the past 48 hours campaigning in the seat. Another factor in the race is whether Restore Britain, described as a far-right nativist party, splits the Reform vote and makes it easier for Labour to retain constituencies such as Makerfield.

A defeat for Reform would be a setback for Farage because Makerfield is among the party's top 30 target seats at the next general election. Reform also fails to win a nearby by-election in Gorton and Denton in February, where it loses to the Greens.

Some cabinet ministers believe Starmer will realise over the weekend and before next Tuesday's cabinet meeting that he no longer has enough support to continue. One cabinet member says ministerial resignations could force the issue, while Wes Streeting claims he has backing from the necessary 81 Labour MPs to begin a formal leadership contest if Starmer refuses to step aside.

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