Nasdaq 100 price forecast: 29,452 support in focus as NDX falls 2.19%

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Nasdaq 100 falls 2.19% to 29,683

Highlights

NDX/USD trades below short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating sustained near-term selling momentum despite long-term support holding.
Intraday momentum and oscillators overwhelmingly signal strong bearish pressure, with pronounced oversold conditions and only neutral trends from MACD and ADX.
Expected trading range is 29,452 to 30,365 over the next few sessions, with a 71% probability of further downside.

Oversold signals deepen as price tests major resistance

NDX/USD is currently trading below its MA-20 and MA-50 on the H1 timeframe and remains above the MA-200 on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun at 29,994 represents immediate resistance, while short-term support is seen at 29,452 and upper resistance at 30,365. Momentum indicators reflect mixed signals: MACD and ADX remain neutral, while RSI sits at a strongly oversold position of 27.5. Additional momentum readings from Stoch RSI, CCI, BBP, and the Awesome Oscillator all flag pronounced intraday selling pressure and a generally oversold market structure.

Downside risk rises as consolidation narrows volatility band

In the near term, the expected trading range for NDX is between 29,452 and 30,365 over the next two to three sessions, which defines the volatility band relative to current levels. Market probability assessments suggest a 71% likelihood of further downside and only a 29% chance of a rebound. The baseline scenario anticipates price consolidation near recent lows within a narrow range. Upside scenarios require a decisive breakout above the Ichimoku Kijun, while failure to hold support at the lower end of the range could result in accelerated selling.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, views NDX price action as technically weak. He notes the index is trading below key moving averages and points out a pronounced oversold reading on the RSI. Signals from momentum indicators confirm ongoing selling pressure. "Unless NDX reclaims the Ichimoku Kijun at 29,994, base case remains for continued consolidation near support — risk of further decline is high."

Earlier, analysts noted that the Nasdaq 100 was exhibiting strong bullish momentum despite warnings of elevated volatility and overbought conditions. The current shift to an oversold environment and sustained selling pressure adds a new dimension, signaling that the next significant move hinges on whether key short-term support at 29,452 can be maintained.

Source of Data: NDX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.