Amazon Prime value growth supports case for higher U.S. membership fees

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Amazon Prime value growth & fees

Highlights

JPMorgan estimates a $139 Amazon Prime membership delivers $1,437 in annual value, with U.S. members saving an average $550 on delivery fees in 2025, up 10% year-over-year.
JPMorgan projects Amazon to reach 370 million Prime users globally in 2024, with U.S. net subscriber additions slowing to 23 million and Prime penetration in existing international markets possibly rising from 33% to 45%.
JPMorgan sees potential for a $20 U.S. Prime fee hike, which could add $3 billion in incremental annualized net sales, alongside $7–$8 billion in incremental Q2 global revenue from the earlier Prime Day sales event.

Prime economics and fee outlook

As reported by CNBC, JPMorgan says a $139 annual Amazon Prime membership in the U.S. now delivers an estimated $1,437 in yearly value, driven by shipping savings and bundled digital services. The bank's sum-of-the-benefits analysis says U.S. members saved an average of $550 on delivery fees in 2025, up 10% from the prior year, while Prime Video, Prime Music and Prime Gaming account for another $228, $120 and $156 in avoided subscription costs, respectively.

The analysis adds to investor focus on Prime as a core competitive advantage for Amazon, especially as subscriber growth becomes harder to sustain in a heavily penetrated U.S. market. JPMorgan expects Amazon to reach 370 million Prime users worldwide by the end of this year, including 139 million in the U.S. and 231 million internationally, while net additions slow to 23 million from 25 million last year.

JPMorgan also sees scope for a U.S. price increase. Amazon has typically raised Prime prices every four years, and the last increase came in 2022, when the annual fee rose from $119 to $139 with minimal churn; the bank estimates that another $20 annual increase in the U.S. could generate about $3 billion in incremental annualized net sales, with additional upside if international prices also rise.

International expansion and retail competition

Outside the U.S., JPMorgan says Amazon still has room to expand membership penetration in existing Prime markets from 33% to 45%, implying 75 million potential new members. Prime is available in 27 countries across five continents, and the bank says Amazon can keep attracting users by improving delivery speeds and adding perks across groceries, restaurant delivery and reading.

Amazon says Prime members globally have saved a total of $105 billion in delivery fees, reflecting long-term investment in logistics and fulfillment. Since launching in 2005 with free two-day shipping on roughly one million items, the service has expanded to more than 300 million items across more than 35 categories, alongside one-day, same-day and emerging 30-minute delivery options.

Prime Day is part of that broader strategy, and this is the first year since 2021 that the summer sales event falls in the second quarter. JPMorgan says the earlier timing likely helps Amazon generate more demand and could add $7 billion to $8 billion in incremental global second-quarter revenue, excluding any added contribution from advertising, Prime subscription gains and other parts of the Prime ecosystem.

Competition remains active as rivals push their own membership models. Walmart offers Walmart+ for $98 per year, Target sells Circle 360 for $99, or half that for Circle cardholders, while Costco operates with a $65 Gold Star membership and a $130 Executive tier.

Our earlier coverage of Target (TGT) highlighted the retailer’s Q1 2026 turnaround, with net revenue rising 7% year over year and its first positive comparable-store sales in five quarters—signs of improving customer engagement and operational execution. The article also noted that while momentum looked constructive above key moving averages, overbought technical indicators suggested near-term upside could be limited unless support levels held.

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