Will Polish Monetary Policy Council signals rate cuts pressure USD/PLN? Key zł3.7487

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US Dollar vs Polish Zloty down 0.52%

Highlights

Escalating Persian Gulf tensions and higher oil prices have driven investors to reduce zloty exposure in favor of safe-haven assets.
The Polish Monetary Policy Council's openness to rate cuts contrasts with expected Fed and ECB hikes, widening the PLN-USD rate differential.
USD/PLN faces sustained bearish pressure with a 76% probability of further decline; price range expected between zł3.7487–zł3.7863 over the next 2–3 days.

Rate cut outlook and geopolitical risk widen gap for zloty weakness

Geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf and an upswing in oil prices have contributed to weakening demand for the Polish zloty, as investors reduce exposure to emerging market currencies and favor safe-haven assets. The US dollar has concurrently reached its highest level in over a year against the zloty, reflecting both sustained USD strength and relative underperformance of the PLN. Furthermore, the Polish Monetary Policy Council has signaled it is open to additional interest rate cuts, diverging from expectations of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, according to Bankier, which has widened the rate differential and exerted additional pressure on the zloty.

Bearish momentum prevails amid mixed signals and technical oversold

USD/PLN is positioned below both the MA-20 at zł3.7847 and the MA-50 at zł3.7936 on the hourly chart, while still sitting above the long-term MA-200 set at zł3.6411. The Ichimoku Kijun level at zł3.7844 acts as immediate resistance. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) points to ongoing bearish momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) signals a neutral direction. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39.89, and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) indicates oversold conditions, potentially foreshadowing a technical rebound. Bull/Bear Power highlights that sellers continue to dominate, and although the Stochastic RSI signals a strong buy, this is not validated by MACD and Awesome Oscillator, which both confirm weak intraday sentiment. Divergent oscillator readings emphasize a mixed technical landscape.

Recovery unlikely as downside bias persists in volatile band

Looking ahead to the next 2-3 trading days, USD/PLN is expected to fluctuate within a band of zł3.7487–zł3.7863, characterizing typical volatility around current levels. Statistical modeling assigns a 24% probability to an upward move and a 76% likelihood for a further decline, making sustained recovery unlikely unless the price recovers above the zł3.7844 Kijun resistance. Should the lower boundary be breached, additional downside is likely, while a move above resistance would shift momentum toward a short-term rebound.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees persistent macro and policy headwinds keeping USD/PLN under pressure. He notes that technicals remain mixed, but momentum and sentiment are negative while the pair trades below key resistance levels. While some technical readings hint at a near-term rebound, fundamental and geopolitical drivers weigh against sustainable upside. "Base case remains further downside unless zł3.7844 resistance is broken — no reason to chase a bounce here."

Earlier, analysts noted that the US Dollar vs Polish Zloty maintained a bullish bias, supported by strong technical structure and persistent buying momentum. However, recent shifts in technical indicators and macroeconomic factors now point to heightened downside risk, making the zł3.7487 support level crucial for determining the next directional move.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.