US Dollar vs Polish Zloty edges lower as technical selling pressure dominates

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Us dollar/pln slides 0.78% today

Highlights

USD/PLN is in a bullish trend, trading above all key moving averages and showing strong upward momentum.
Short-, medium-, and long-term technical signals remain bullish, with primary indicators pointing towards further upside potential.
Despite current overbought conditions and today's intraday sell-off, the pair is expected to consolidate between zł3.7412 and zł3.8016, with an over 80% probability of upward movement.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, highlights today’s sharp technical selling in USD/PLN despite the dominant bullish setup. He notes the pair’s continued hold above key moving averages as a sign of sustained longer-term strength but warns that overbought readings on RSI and Stochastic RSI increase the risk of a deeper pullback. The analyst points out that the absence of any material news leaves the price action vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment and technical triggers. Kharitonov is cautious about immediate upside given the current volatility surge. He states, "Bulls have the structure, but unless overbought conditions subside and volatility moderates, the risk of further downside spikes should not be underestimated."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the bullish structure in USD/PLN as intact. He emphasizes the strength above all main moving averages and the resilience of buyers, despite intraday volatility. Karapetjanc views current consolidation as an opportunity for bullish positioning, with breakout potential above zł3.8016. He remains constructive, saying, "Further growth is likely as long as momentum persists and the pair sustains above key support levels."

Bullish trend endures as overbought signals and selloff intensify

USD/PLN trades above all its major moving averages, with the current price at zł3.7767. It remains above the MA-20 (zł3.766), MA-50 (zł3.7024), and MA-200 (zł3.6401), supporting a bullish trend across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. The nearest resistance is found at zł3.8016, while near-term support stands at zł3.7737. Momentum indicators remain bullish, with both MACD and ADX suggesting further upside potential. However, the RSI at 73.44, Stochastic RSI at 100, and CCI at 149.54 all flag overbought conditions. The Bull/Bear Power is positive at 0.0355, confirming buyer dominance intraday. The Awesome Oscillator supports sustained buying strength. Nonetheless, the pair has declined zł0.0298 or 0.78% today after opening with a downside gap, and now trades near the session low, highlighting an intraday surge in selling pressure even as broader indicators stay bullish.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/PLN maintained a bullish bias, supported by strong technical structure and persistent buying momentum. Despite today's increased selling pressure, the outlook remains constructive and traders should closely monitor zł3.8016 as a breakout level that could signal renewed upside in the days ahead.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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