USD/PLN holds near zł3.7636 support as renewed conflict in the Persian Gulf emerges

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US Dollar vs Polish Zloty slides 0.63%

Highlights

Escalating Persian Gulf tensions are driving risk aversion, boosting oil prices and weakening the Polish zloty against the US dollar.
The surge in oil and geopolitical uncertainty has reinforced the US dollar's appeal as a safe-haven over the zloty.
USD/PLN short-term momentum is weak, but the pair is likely to trade sideways in the zł3.7636–zł3.8172 range with a 61% probability of upward movement.

Risk aversion and higher oil prices lift dollar as zloty softens

Renewed conflict in the Persian Gulf has heightened risk aversion and contributed to a rise in oil prices, according to Bankier. This environment has promoted demand for traditional safe-haven currencies, causing the Polish zloty to weaken against the US dollar. The broader implications of elevated oil prices and renewed geopolitical uncertainty have reinforced the US dollar's standing as a defensive asset relative to the zloty.

Mixed momentum and resistance zones constrain rebound potential

On the technical front, USD/PLN sits below its 20- and 50-hour moving averages at zł3.8062 and zł3.7996, which suggests nearby resistance zones and could contain upward attempts in the short term. The pair is still trading notably above the 200-day moving average at zł3.6401, underscoring a preserved long-term structure. The Ichimoku Kijun level at zł3.7962 also serves as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators are mixed: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reveals strong bullish momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains neutral, reflecting unclear trend strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), Commodity Channel Index (CCI), and Stochastic RSI all point to potential for a rebound from short-term oversold conditions, while Bull/Bear Power suggests intraday buyer dominance and the Awesome Oscillator signals an upward bias.

Sideways bias with breakout points driving near-term direction

Looking ahead, USD/PLN is likely to fluctuate within a typical volatility range between zł3.7636 and zł3.8172 over the next two to three sessions. Probabilities favor a sideways to slightly higher move, with a 61% chance assigned to an upward scenario. A break above zł3.7962 would prompt a test of the range high near zł3.8172, while a sustained move below the support zone around recent lows presents downside risk toward zł3.7636.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the USD/PLN pair as shaped by renewed geopolitical tensions and risk aversion. Technically, Kharitonov notes nearby resistance at zł3.7962, with momentum indicators sending mixed signals. He remains cautious due to the tricky macro backdrop and unclear trend strength. "Until USD/PLN can sustain above zł3.7962, I stay defensive and prefer to wait for clearer direction."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/PLN maintained a bullish bias as technical and momentum indicators favored further upside. The latest developments reinforce this outlook, suggesting traders should closely monitor the zł3.7962 resistance for signs of renewed upward extension or a decisive shift in near-term direction.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.