U.S. Treasury raises July-September borrowing estimate to $739 billion

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Treasury raises borrowing estimate

Highlights

U.S. Treasury raises July-September 2026 borrowing estimate to $739 billion, up $68 billion from May’s forecast, citing lower projected net cash flows.
In the October-December 2026 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $628 billion with an assumed end-of-quarter cash balance of $850 billion.
Treasury’s April-June 2026 actual borrowing was $190 billion with a cash balance of $919 billion, deviating by only $1 billion from May’s estimates.

Borrowing outlook for the next two quarters

As reported by U.S. Department of the Treasury, the department today says it expects to borrow $739 billion in privately-held net marketable debt during the July-September 2026 quarter, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $950 billion.

That estimate is $68 billion higher than the borrowing projection announced in May 2026. Treasury says the increase mainly reflects lower projected net cash flows, partly offset by a higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance. Excluding that higher opening cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $87 billion above the May projection.

For the October-December 2026 quarter, Treasury says it expects to borrow $628 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion. The department also says additional financing details tied to its Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, August 5, 2026.

Cash position and market funding implications

In the April-June 2026 quarter, Treasury says it borrowed $190 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the period with a cash balance of $919 billion. In May 2026, it had estimated borrowing of $189 billion and assumed an end-of-June cash balance of $900 billion.

Treasury says the $1 billion difference in actual borrowing primarily results from the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, partly offset by higher net cash flows. Excluding the stronger end-of-quarter cash position, actual borrowing was $18 billion lower than announced in May.

The department notes that privately-held net marketable borrowing excludes rollovers of Treasury securities held in the System Open Market Account, but includes financing needs linked to SOMA redemptions. It also says buybacks are not expected to significantly affect privately-held net marketable borrowing because new issuance replaces securities that are repurchased.

In our earlier article on GBP/USD moves tied to U.S. Treasury actions supporting the Japanese yen, we noted that these measures helped drive broader dollar dynamics and influenced sterling’s performance. The analysis also highlighted the role of elevated U.S. Treasury yields in shaping currency flows, while flagging mixed technical signals—short- and mid-term support but overbought conditions and resistance near longer-term levels.

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