Europe faces rising security risks as Russia escalates hybrid attacks

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Europe faces rising security risks

Highlights

Recent Russian hybrid attacks include an attempted drone strike in August on a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig-Halle airport and this month's drone strike on a train near Poland.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Danish intelligence warn the risk of a limited Russian attack on a Nato country, though still low, is rising within months.
EU defence ministers debate new collective response mechanisms, with some capitals saying Berlin should have triggered Nato Article 4 after the Leipzig incident.

Escalating incidents raise pressure for faster action

As reported by Financial Times, recent episodes include an attempted Russian drone attack in August on a Ukrainian cargo plane used to transport military aid at Germany’s Leipzig-Halle airport and, this month, a drone strike on a train near Ukraine’s border with Poland shortly after another train carrying European officials had passed through.

European leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk are warning that Moscow could go further. Tusk tells Poland’s parliament that Russia might carry out drone or missile attacks on Nato members and present them as accidents to test the alliance’s collective defence, while Danish intelligence says the risk of a limited Russian attack on a Nato country is low but growing within months.

The article argues that European capitals should react more rapidly when evidence of Russian involvement is compelling, even if Moscow designs such operations to remain deniable. Germany, it notes, took nearly four weeks to formally accuse Moscow over the Leipzig incident, in which the drone fails to detonate.

Collective deterrence and defence planning

European countries should calibrate their response to deter Moscow without triggering direct escalation, while still pushing as far as possible below the threshold of military action. Options include closing consulates, expelling diplomats, tightening sanctions and increasing pressure on Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers.

Such steps could carry more weight if several countries impose them at the same time when a Russian operation against one state crosses a defined threshold. The article says some capitals believe Berlin should have triggered consultations under Nato’s Article 4, and notes that EU defence ministers on Monday debate new collective mechanisms to answer Russian aggression, though overlap with Nato should be avoided.

The broader argument is that Europe also needs to strengthen preparations against any Russian attempt to probe Nato’s Article 5. The piece says the Kremlin is likely to be encouraged by weak responses, making firmer and better coordinated deterrence central to reducing the risk of further escalation.

Canada–Hungary talks on support for Ukraine and NATO cooperation were previously covered by our publication, following a meeting between Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand and Hungary’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Orbán in Toronto. The discussions reaffirmed backing for Ukraine amid Russia’s ongoing aggression, touched on broader transatlantic security coordination, and also included a parallel agenda on strengthening bilateral trade ties and advancing Hungary’s ratification of the Canada–EU trade agreement.

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